Banking

Money Matters by BLOMINVEST Bank

by Executive Staff
written by Executive Staff

Regional stock market indices

Regional currency rates

South Koreans awarded housing development contracts in Libya

Two South Korean contractors, Sungwon Corporation and Amco, won a $1 billion contract to construct housing units in Libya.  Sungwon Co. signed a $996 million deal with Libyan Investment and Development Company to construct 5,000 residential units, while Amco, a Hyundai motor Co. subsidiary, will build 2,000 domiciles and related infrastructure in the city of Qubbah, as part of a $420 million project developed for the Organization for Development of Administrative Centres. In a related development, following its meeting in Alexandria, the Mediterranean union launched a new regional $1.3 billion infrastructure fund with the aim of developing infrastructure across the region.

Kuwait KPI and China Sinopec to build oil plant

Kuwait Petroleum International (KPI) and the Chinese state refiner, Sinopec, announced the relocation of their $9 billion mega refinery and petrochemical project to Donghai Island near Zhanjiang, in China’s Guangdong province. The plant, which is set to be completed by the end of 2013, will have a crude oil refining capacity of 300,000 barrels per day and ethylene production capacity of 1 million tons per year. The proposed project would become one of the largest Sino-foreign joint ventures in China. It is part of Kuwait’s plans to build strong links with China, regarded as a key future market for oil and gas. Furthermore, it is expected to serve as a driving force for the Gulf state to achieve its China-bound crude oil export target of 500,000 bpd by 2015. KPI will supply 100 percent of the crude to be processed at the plant.

Egypt’s 2009 growth between 3.2% and 4.3%

The International Monetary Fund, Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) and Moody’s Rating Agency Services have published their relevant economic data on Egypt indicating a 2009/10 growth ranging between 3.2 percent and 4.3 percent. The IMF pointed out that the gross domestic product will grow by 4% in 2009/2010, while inflation will decline to below 10 percent in June 2009. Moreover, the IMF said that despite the lower economic growth rates than previous years, Egypt has weathered the impact of the global financial crisis well. The EIU has made an upward revision to their GDP growth forecast to 4.4 percent in 2008/09, and 4 percent in 2009/10 following better than expected economic data. The EIU specified that the Egyptian government has taken several steps to weather the crisis, while the Central Bank of Egypt has made four interest rate cuts so far and is expected to implement further reductions in 2009 and 2010. Moody’s Ratings estimates real GDP growth exceeded expectations in the first quarter of 2009, at 4.3%, and the expected growth for the year is estimated at 3.2 percent to 4 percent, despite the agency’s downgrade from stable to negative in June 2008.

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Banking

For your information

by Executive Staff
written by Executive Staff

UAE restricts structured products

On August 2nd, the United Arab Emirates’ central bank issued a circular instructing Emirati banks to withdraw from selling structured products.

“Should a bank wish to sell a structured product to its customers, it will have to submit to the central bank a written request with the relevant details and the rationale for asking an exemption to this rule,” stated the notice.

Evidently, the UAE Central Bank made this move in order to avoid future defaults and severe problems. Many banks in the UAE had invested in structured products up through 2008. Once the global financial crisis took hold, banks across the UAE and the GCC faced major liquidity problems. Consequently, the UAE sovereign had to bail out the financial institutions in order for the economy to stay afloat. This recent circular by the UAE Central Bank should improve regulation of local banks, while avoiding any major fallouts that could derive from structured product investments.

Lebanon resilient, but public debt looms

Earlier this year, the International Monetary Fund reported that the Lebanese economy would grow by 4 percent in 2009. Now, the IMF has revised this projection and believes the economy could grow considerably faster than previously thought — even when most emerging economies are still profoundly affected by the global credit crunch.

The IMF was worried about Lebanon’s extreme vulnerability at the start of the global financial crisis in September 2008, as the economy had one of the highest government debt-to-GDP ratios in the world, a large and heavily dollarized banking system (with substantial exposure to the public debt), and its local currency pegged to the US dollar.

With Lebanon’s ongoing deposit inflows, high liquidity levels, strong and conservative banking sector, improved internal security conditions and a small export base, the IMF says these key factors are responsible for the country’s resilience. Yet, the national debt still remains a major issue.

According to Bank Audi, by the end of June 2009 the public deficit stood at $47.3 billion — 160 percent of GDP. This is down from $47.9 billion in May 2009, $48 billion in April and $48.2 billion in March 2009. “This continuous decline has diminished the year-to-date increase to a mere 0.6 percent in the first half of 2009, as compared to 5.8 percent in the same period in 2008.”

However, the IMF warns that Lebanon could still be at risk in the future,  thus, substantial reduction of the country’s debts should be the top priority.  The IMF says this will take many years of continued fiscal regulation and will necessitate solving the problems in the electricity sector.

Emirates’ liquidity up

Liquidity in the UAE banking sector is reportedly on its way to recovery. Published in August, a report by the Dubai Chamber Economist credited the Emirates Interbank Offered Rate (EIBOR) for encouraging liquidity inflows into the banks operating in the UAE. The EIBOR rate currently stands at a low of 3 percent, significantly down from its peak of 4.6 percent in November 2008.

“The significant easing reflects the improvement in market sentiment over the past few months and strong appetite of banks to start lending to each other,” the report said. “Some observers suggest this trend is likely to continue throughout the remainder of this year.”

Speaking to Emirates Business 24/7, Sanjoy Sen, consumer bank head of Middle East at Citibank, noted the recent increased levels of liquidity into the UAE market. “Yes, we see a lot of liquidity entering the market. A lot of investment that was going into the property market is now coming into the bank as deposits.”

“In the past few months we have witnessed funds, which were earlier held abroad, being moved back to the UAE. This is a very healthy trend for this market and consumer confidence has been further boosted by the UAE government’s deposit guarantee scheme that covers all local and foreign banks.”

UAE Central Bank data illustrates the improved conditions. Figures say that banks raised $15.3 billion in cash deposits in just the first six months of 2009, while only lending $3.6 billion during the same period. The loan-to-deposit ratio gap has significantly decreased since the beginning of the year; at the end of January the gap stood at $24.5 billion, while by the end of June this figure had dropped to $12.9 billion.

“This clearly suggests that the gap is narrowing considerably in a short space of time. Overall, the banking sector’s finances are starting to look healthier,” the Dubai Chamber Economist report said.

Lebanese banks solid

August, Bank Audi published a report on the resilience of the Lebanese banking sector, entitled “A Successful Story of Resilience Unscathed by Global Turmoil.”

Based on data from 2008 and the first half of 2009, the report says “Lebanon’s banking sector has witnessed in fact over the past year one of its best performances ever, unscathed by the global financial turmoil.”

From December 2007 to December 2008, domestic banks’ assets grew by 13 percent to $13 billion. Asset growth was mostly driven by customer deposits, which made up $11 billion over those 12 months.

This trend “was extended even further over the first half of 2009, as per preliminary Central Bank statistics,” the report said. “Capital inflows towards Lebanon amounted to above $16 billion in 2008, up by 48 percent relative to the previous year, leaving a large balance of payments surplus of $3.5 billion, a record high for Lebanon.”

Despite all the good news, Bank Audi cautions that in order for domestic banks to remain resilient in the long-term, structural reforms must take place, “to ensure a soft-landing scenario for Lebanon’s public finance conditions that remain worrisome and where the main vulnerability lies.”

Results of BSE listed banks for the first six months of 2009

The results of the first half of the year for the five banks listed on the Beirut Stock Exchange (BSE) are out, proving that the Lebanese banking sector has remained resilient throughout the global crisis.

Combined net profits of Bank Audi, BLOM Bank, Byblos Bank, Banque BEMO and Bank of Beirut increased by 3 percent to $368.1 million in the first half of 2009, up from $357.3 million in the first half of 2008. The banks’ average aggregate net profit growth reached 1.54 percent in the first half of the year.

BLOM recorded the highest growth in net profits with a 5.8 percent increase in the first half of 2009, totaling $138.3 million.

In the first six months of 2009, the average net assets of these banks increased 10 percent from the end of 2008. BEMO witnessed the largest asset growth from the end of 2008 with a 15.6 percent jump.

The listed banks’ deposits rose by 10.9 percent from the end of last year and 17.8 percent from the end of June 2008, reaching $50 billion. BLOM recorded the lowest loan-to-deposit ratio at 21.7 percent for the first six months of the year, compared to 22.7 percent at the end of June 2008. Byblos Bank came in second place for lowest loan-to-deposit ratio of 30.9 percent, versus 32.9 percent it posted at the end of the first half of 2008. Next came Bank of Beirut with a ratio of 31.3 percent for the first half of 2009, versus 35 percent in June of last year.

Bank Audi, Lebanon’s largest bank by total assets, witnessed a 32.4 percent loan-to-deposit ratio in the first half of 2009, versus 35.8 percent at the end of June 2008. Banque BEMO saw the highest loan-to-deposit ratio amongst the listed banks, with a 47.8 percent ratio versus 48.5 percent at the end of June last year.

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Editorial

Time to boycott failure

by Yasser Akkaoui
written by Yasser Akkaoui

It is a measure of how far Lebanon has come in recent years that a new roof is being placed on the synagogue in the Beirut Central District. It is also a reflection of Lebanon’s unique multi-faith make-up and the country’s tolerance for all religions.

But tolerance alone does not make a strong state.

It is no secret that today Israeli companies are outsmarting the Arab boycott, a concept so archaic and so self-defeating it stopped having any real meaning decades ago. Israeli manufacturers are re-branding and re-labeling their products to compete in the new and vibrant Arab markets.

Furthermore, Israel has set itself up as a shop front for global manufacturing, attracting some of the world’s biggest brands to their industrial parks. The upshot is that, while the Arab world tears itself apart, Intel — to take just one example — churns out Israeli-made processors destined for a global market.

And yet while Arab regimes would deny us the right to buy those same processors, they are also denying us the chance to move forward and compete in the name of a strategic ideal they call the Arab boycott.

The real Arab boycott should be one that stops us from denying ourselves the right to take our place in the community of nations that make up the new globalized economy. It should involve us making an effort to produce and compete on an equal level.

Contrary to popular belief, the strategic goal of the Zionist state is to place an emphasis on economic dominance. It is as much economic as military or political leverage that drives Arab-Israeli negotiations. After all, the victor is the nation that can achieve economic sustainability.

The Arab world, and the countries of the Levant in particular, need to understand the essential connection between the state, the public sector and the welfare of the people. Without this economic angle, a state can never succeed; indeed it can never be a state.

Lebanon is a case in point. The private sector has the talent and it has the will. The state now needs to hitch this potential to its creaking wagon so that it can start competing with Israel at its own game. Lebanon needs to start empowering, competing and attracting foreign investment.

It is that simple.

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Society

Crepaway – Claude Thoumy (Q&A)

by Nada Nohra
written by Nada Nohra

Crepaway was founded in 1984 by two brothers, Charles and Claude Thoumy, as a limited liability company and was incorporated in 2003. Today, Crepaway Corporation operates eight outlets in Lebanon with two seasonal restaurants, and four franchises in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Charles Thoumy has been the chairman and general manager of Crepaway since its founding as a small kiosk serving crepes. He spoke with Executive about he and his brother’s successful chain of “casual dining” restaurants.

E How is the casual dining industry performing, and what are the major problems in the industry?
The major problem is basically inconsistency. In a country like Lebanon, even if you go by strategic planning, you have to have a tactical approach in dealing with circumstantial ups and downs. Sometimes you go for a five or six year plan, and something happens, like a war or a crisis, and then you have to [halt] your plans and go for tactical little things to make your thing work. Again you are not working on a road map to achieve your goals. It is a temporary deviation.

E So you always have to have a plan B? 
And C and D sometimes.

E Other than the inconsistency, are there any problems that you are facing with government regulations?
No, but you are working in a country that is not really structured. Sometimes you have to deal with different departments, sometimes they overlap, sometimes they do their job and sometimes they don’t. There is no system that you can abide by. You do not feel that there is someone to help you. When the government structures its departments again, we will be able to deal easier with their rules and regulations. Even though we know that rules and regulations, like everything else, need to be updated.

E What corporate strategy do you use to deal with competition?
We have fierce competition. The fiercest competitor we have is ourselves. We compete with ourselves to do better every day. I think competition is a source of richness. Competitors learn from you and you learn from them; that is  basic. You do better in something, they do better in something else. Then you upgrade, they update and that is the nice game of competition. On the other hand, since we have been leading since 1984, we have had a lot of people coming and copying… well not copying, but it is a normal thing in business when people look at businesses that are working well and try to do something similar. That is another confirmation that we are doing well and where we feel we have the responsibility to do better than we did before. That is the main scope of our competition.

Talking about strategies, there are different strategies to deal with competition. First, when you talk about competitive strategy, [it] is when you see what the competitor is doing and try to do better. We are not into war with our competitors — we try to complete each other, so there is not really an approach where we look closely at what they are doing and then try to block the way for competition. It is a nice game everybody is playing, and people who win have to be complemented.

E In the last couple of months, many restaurants have increased their prices. Do you know the reason?
We also have extra running costs concerning electricity and generators… we are living that today. The increase in prices happened in the last couple of years. And again the cost of real estate has increased a lot. Which means that the rent went up a lot. At all levels, you have an increase in your costs. In the end you are in a business that requires high running cost. We haven’t increased our prices in the last two or three months. Beginning in spring, we have added sometimes 500 or 1,000 Lebanese lira because of the fluctuation of the Euro. So, we had to.

E How has the financial crisis affected Lebanon and your business?
The economic downturn of course has an adverse impact, not only on Lebanon but on the global level. It leads to a decrease in purchasing power. We have witnessed a decline in the purchasing power, especially from the people and expats who used to come from Dubai and Qatar. They were loaded with money, so they used to come and spend their money with more freedom. These were affected. But we cannot say people are refraining… but there is for sure a drop in average spending.

E Do you have an idea how severe the drop has been?
I cannot tell you really, but I can say that it doesn’t show a lot because we tried to increase the volume (the number of people) and the flow of tourists was high. But we can say that the average check that was $15 could go down to $13. But you can tell that in big restaurants that serve champagne and wine, because some people that used to spend $300 for a bottle of wine are now spending $70, for example. It is an attitude. Instead of ordering three platters and appetizers and a dish and a desert, people would share. It goes back to the average check.

E If we want to talk about tourism this summer, what do you think is the difference?
[With] the stability of the political situation we have seen a very high flow of tourism. Even in our branch in Egypt, where Arabs used to go, our management there said they were affected by the flow of tourism that hasn’t been very substantial there, and they say that all the tourists went to Lebanon. They sensed it in the Egypt branch because usually Egypt is a destination for Arabs in summer. You can also tell by the hotel reservations. I can tell that definitely there is a 35 percent increase in our sales.

E What about other branches in the Gulf. Are you sensing a negative effect?
The casual dining industry is able to face the financial crisis, even in the regional markets, because the average check is affordable. There is no doubt that they were affected because there was less tourism and these countries also rely on tourism. But the affect was not on a large scale, because it is not a luxury product. For an expat working in Saudi or Qatar, he would definitely [rather] go spend $15 or $20 for a meal than $50. But in Dubai, the yield changed drastically.

E What are your plans? Are you planning to expand in the future to other countries?
Strategically, growth is a constant objective; it is the main motivation, we cannot stop. We have one opening in Hamra [district in Beirut] probably in a month’s time, and there is a new mall in Saida — we are opening there. There is also a plan to grow into micro markets but the idea is not consolidated yet. We have plans for several locations in the KSA, Qatar, Syria, and Dubai. We are planning for all that. We were planning to open in Dubai the beginning of this summer, and we postponed that until next year.

E Do you expect to do better than last year in terms of profits?
Yes I expect it to be better because when the volume goes up, you have better opportunity to make a profit. We work on a volume basis. In our industry, we are not defined by what 50 people would [spend in one] night, with an average of $200 per person… if we have three bursts per year like we have this summer, I think our industry would be fine. We invested a lot in organization last year, so our profits were slower last year because we were in an investment mode. But this year we amortized that and we know we have around a 40 percent increase in profits.

 

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Society

McLaren – Ian Gorsuch (Q&A)

by Paul Cochrane
written by Paul Cochrane

Since 1963, McLaren has been renowned for its race cars and is the only racing team to have won Formula 1, Indianapolis 500, Can-Am and Le Mans championships. McLaren Automotive was established in 1989 and eventually manufactured the iconic McLaren F1 which, when it launched in 1992, was the world’s fastest production road car with a top speed of 386 kilometers per hour. Only 100 were built. Executive spoke with Ian Gorsuch, McLaren’s regional director for the Middle East and Africa, in Beirut after his company announced McLaren Automotive’s launch as a new, high performance car company.


E You said in your presentation that a McLaren F1 sold for $4.1 million some eight months ago. That is quite remarkable in a recession, no?
People were surprised as it was at the height of the recession. But it shows there is an interest and understanding of what we did in the world [at the time], the first luxury super car that was way above $150,000 — at $1 million, but now there are many [brands] at that price. It was great to see such confidence in McLaren… [F1 driver] Lewis Hamilton has been promised one if he wins three F1 championships with McLaren.

E How is the Gulf market for super cars compared to the rest of the globe?
The US and Europe are the major markets. Here is perhaps 10 percent of demand because, although there are a lot of wealthy people, [the population is smaller], and there are more millionaires in the US than here, although here [they] may be retaining their wealth better.

 
 

 E What super cars does McLaren compete with, in the Middle East and globally?

People will benchmark us against Ferrari and Lamborghini — favorably.

E The world is going through a financial crisis. Why are you marketing now for the 2011 launch?

I think it was good planning but also good luck; develop in the recession and hopefully by 2011 — what everyone is saying — the recession will be over, and we’ll launch the McLaren P11. We have also been very conservative with our figures, not looking at the 2007-2008 market — a record year with sales up — but at 2003-2004, when sales were lower. And we’re lucky, when we sell in 2001, we will have demand and not a stock situation, but a clean sheet.

 E How has the slowdown affected McLaren?
Our competitive benchmark has suffered a slowdown in sales, but Lamborghini, Ferrari and Aston Martin are still selling, in less amounts, and that is why we have a conservative model from several years ago, not last year.

E And how have sales of McLaren been in the Gulf?

While McLaren builds the SLR, it is Mercedes-Benz that actually sells them and possesses all the information relating to sales in the region. Globally, the SLR has been the most successful supercar ever in its price bracket. What we are doing at McLaren Automotive now is to create a completely new car company — not only will we build our own cars, but we will market them through our very own distribution network.

E When was the first McLaren bought in the Gulf?
It was the McLaren F1 in the early 1990s.

E McLaren will have distributors in Kuwait, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Doha, Manama, and three in Saudi Arabia. What’s the plan until they open?
Our current focus is on building an understanding and awareness in the region of what McLaren, and in particular McLaren Automotive, is about. Currently some people know the brand from Formula 1, some from the McLaren F1 supercar and others from the success of the Mercedes-Benz SLR McLaren. We are also in the process of appointing a retail network and building a prospect and depositor base.

E A prospect and depositor base?
This is particular to the luxury car markets, the brand and the dealer. Customers order in advance to assure early delivery.

E There will be dealerships in the Gulf, but why not in Beirut?
When the car is launched, we will build 1,000 for the world. There will be large demand and we will not be able to open everywhere. We need a dealership to be profitable as they look after customers better. We want our customers to be comfortable when in Beirut. So in the initial stages cars will only be looked after here in Beirut, at a service center.

E Have you found a center yet?
We are still looking for a service operator. I think we have identified one, and it will be the same one that deals with top end customers with super cars.

E But given the road conditions in Lebanon — driving aside — there are potholes, speed bumps and other obstacles, is Beirut the right place to drive a McLaren?
If a guy comes here for his summer holidays and brings one to two cars, he might decide to bring say a Lamborghini and a Aston Martin because there is a service center, but not bring his McLaren — even though he loves driving it — so we want him to be comfortable and have the confidence to bring it here.

E There is a Formula 1 track in Bahrain, and over the past few years there has been talk of F1 tracks opening in Qatar and Dubai. That must be good news.
The whole region is car mad, and aware of cars, and loves racing cars… often on the streets. For F1 to be in Bahrain, it is good for us to be a major player at the cutting edge of technology, and for us to be there in the region.

E McLaren is known for its gold covered engines. Excessive?
It is not actually the engine that has a gold cover, but the engine bay of the original McLaren F1 supercar. This was for purely practical reasons, as gold was found to be the best material for heat insulation. Indeed, at McLaren we have a saying that everything we do is done for a purpose.

E You mentioned many brands that McLaren has worked with in the presentation. Is this still the case?
We developed the engine of the F1 car with BMW. During the 1980s, the Formula 1 cars’ engines were from Honda. Nowadays, we have Mercedes-Benz engines in our F1 cars, and of course we have been working with Mercedes-Benz on the SLR. What working with other brands has shown is that one plus one equals three. We learned a lot from our partnership with Mercedes on the SLR. With the new car, we will be building on all this experience yet producing a car that will be totally McLaren.

E Over the next few months you are going to be doing hot weather testing in the Gulf. Why there, not say in the deserts of Nevada?
The Gulf temperatures are hot and humid, and in the deserts [there is] low humidity and high temperatures, so a good environment for testing. A major concern of our Gulf customers is whether the car will be able to handle the conditions of the Gulf.

E You are to have a shareholding of $407 million. Will there be an initial public offering (IPO), or are you looking at an investor, or investors?
It’s all in equity, there is no debt, so we are looking for an investor.

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Executive Insights

Those who lead and those who follow

by Rany Kassab & Ramsay G. Najjar
written by Rany Kassab & Ramsay G. Najjar

During these times of unending political squabbles, we often hear people sitting in cafes basking in Beirut’s sun arguing and vigorously calling for the emergence of a new leadership that can help replace some of the “old guard” and resurrect the country from its quasi-lethargic political quagmire.

Elsewhere in the Arab region, the “identity confusion” that has characterized certain societies, in terms of a lack of unified values and divergent aspirations, has also triggered a quest for a leadership capable of fulfilling people’s expectations.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, on Manhattan island, and in the midst of one of the worst financial crises seen since 1929, what used to be the “golden boys” of finance and young executives are desperately hoping for a new corporate leadership that can help shield their gloried financial institutions from bankruptcy, and bring back the good old days of mouth-watering bonuses and lavish lifestyles.

In all cases, however, certain questions come to mind: What exactly makes a leader? Is political leadership, in essence, any different from leadership in the corporate world?And possibly the more fundamental and age-old question remains, is leadership an innate or a nurtured quality?

What’s certain is that while leadership is most often associated with political figureheads and CEOs, it nonetheless is evident all around us, whether in the way a team captain leads his team to victory, a school teacher pushes her pupils to explore their full potential, or a general leads his men into battle. Leadership is also certainly not restricted to humans, as it also extends to the animal kingdom where “alfa” males try to impose their authority and dominance over the pack.

Leadership, thus, is that ability to influence others, to rally and galvanize people around an agenda. It is the capacity to communicate a certain vision in a way that allows it to get across to its intended recipients and very often change perceptions and entrench principles and convictions. Whether these convictions are considered “good” or “bad” is a matter of personal opinion.

In fact, while we might find Hitler, Mussolini, Genghis Khan, Pol Pot, or even Rupert Murdoch’s views and actions appalling, no one can argue their ability to influence people into believing them and in them, which is a quintessential leadership trait.

All such leaders have in common certain sets of skills and attributes that reinforce the perception of leadership that others have of them, most notably charisma, linguistic skills, physical aura, confidence and determination.

While some of these characteristics are arguably innate, most are acquired and developed through the years, and communication plays a central role in this. The way a person communicates, both verbally and physically, can go a long way in establishing his leadership, granted that the physical “package” is coupled with a core “product,” or message that matches, if not surpasses it.

Eye contact, facial expressions, hand gestures, tone of voice, posture and clothing are all bits and pieces of a larger puzzle that when rightfully pieced together can help accentuate and showcase a person’s leadership.

This is especially true when considering that 70 to 90 percent of communication is non-verbal, relayed through body language. Both consciously and sub-consciously, your body tells observers what is really going on with you. As the old adage goes, you can lie with your words but never with your eyes.

Likewise, although subtle, even the smallest of hand gestures can, according to some schools of thought, be associated with a specific image in people’s minds, be it positive or negative.
On the other hand, a person’s posture, stride and gestures, can either convey the image of a strong, forceful and dynamic person, or that of an unassertive and nervous individual who is lacking self confidence and assurance.

But while physical demeanor is key to nurturing one’s leadership skills, it is only one side of the equation, with the second being the content of the person’s message and his ability to engage his audience and to deliver his message in an impressive and resonating manner.

Having the right ideas is a main ingredient for leadership, but being able to convey them through the media to stakeholders in a catchy and simple way that makes them understood by the masses is equally as important, particularly at a time of increased media awareness.

Media skills, both in terms of physical language and message delivery, can nowadays make or break a leader. Case in point, Democratic hopeful Howard Dean killed his chances early in the United State’s 2004 Democratic primaries due to an emotional holler (the “Dean Scream”) during one rally that gave bloggers and late night show hosts in the US ample material for comedy that ruined his “presidential” allure.

Less than a month ago, Hilary Clinton’s inability to control her emotions at a public meeting in the Congo became an online sensation that some political pundits argued undermined her aura and revealed her Achilles heel.

It is because of such examples that established and aspiring leaders alike, both those in the political arena and in the corporate world, have recognized the importance of media training, which has become a skill sought by many across the world. Media training can provide the dos and don’ts of communication that are pivotal to would-be or seasoned leaders, as they can help to enhance the power of their rhetoric while increasing their ability to influence and impact others.

In the Middle East, many corporate heads and politicians are also starting to realize the pivotal role of communication in cementing their leadership. But much is still needed in terms of mastering such skills in a way that does not dilute their image or over-expose them. Their goal should be to ultimately reach the level of “media maturity” that allows their discourse to move from simple propaganda to a truly content-rich and engaging discourse.

In the end, a person’s aptitude to properly communicate and express himself, effectively reaching his audiences and speaking a language that strikes a chord with them, both through his physical demeanor and messages, can determine whether he truly is a leader.

Rudyard Kipling surely said it best when he said:
“If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with Kings — nor lose the common touch;
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much…
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And — which is more — you’ll be a Man [and almost certainly a leader] my son!”

Rany Kassab & Ramsay G. Najjar S2C

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Executive Insights

Front-office self-assessment is good for the firm

by Tommy Weir
written by Tommy Weir

Look in the mirror and take a long look to see how well you are doing as a leader. This can be very scary, as a mirror reveals reality and all of the blemishes that we try so hard to hide. It has probably been a long time since you took a real look at the quality of your leadership and you will be anxious from the results.

Guess what? You are probably not doing as effective a job as you may have thought, at least according to your followers. For this past year the average difference, globally, between how effective managers say they are and how effective the non-managers say the managers are is a startling 12 percent, according to the Kenexa Research Institute’s Employee Confidence Index. This is a significant gap that organizations must address.

It is no surprise that leaders think they are better than non-managers say they are, as they seldom take the time to look in the mirror. Isn’t it strange that in organizational life, leaders try to cover-up, hide and masquerade their leadership quality when every employee sees the real story and knows the truth?

In this region, the typical manager’s reaction is to argue about the results, blame others and make excuses for the difference. Because of pride and prestige, they find this research a very hard truth to swallow. Immediately upon learning that they are not as effective as they think they are, managers start making excuses and blaming everyone possible. Here is a list of common reactions:

They blame the organization, saying it did not give them the support needed.
They blame the human resourses deparment, saying they hired these people who are questioning the effectiveness of their leadership.
They blame the global recession.
They blame the employees saying they do not know what quality leadership is.
And, they conclude that the employees are just wrong.
They blame everyone, except for the real source of the leadership deficit, which is themselves. Instead of blaming and making excuses for their lack of effectiveness, the managers need to take responsibility, recognizing that they are not performing as well as they think. Then, and only then, will they be in a position to do something about it and to get better.

Business, political parties and governments are at great risk if they do not pay attention to what the research says. It may be revealing that the level of employee engagement is off, employees are loyal to themselves and not the organization, and the organization is not receiving top performance from the non-managers. The employees are stating a painful reality that organizations need to address in order to mitigate the risk associated.

So what should an organization do to improve reality to the level of perceived leadership effectiveness?

First, an organization needs to discover the truth through a global standard leadership effectiveness survey.

Then, leaders need to see and accept the reality of what the non-managers say about the effectiveness of their leading. No more blaming, hiding or masquerading. They need to accept the results and be accountable for them. 

Finally, organizations need to invest in developing the effectiveness of their leaders. This should happen through organizational systems, processes and approaches that provide accountability and through leadership development.

In this region, only 50 percent of organizations invest in developing their leaders. And for the majority of the ones who do invest, the development is limited to aspiring leaders — not the ones who already occupy the managerial posts. The result is less than optimum effectiveness in leadership, as most managers do not continue to improve their capability once they attain the aspired managerial position. 

If an organization wants to mitigate its risk exposure, it must get serious about its leadership reality/effectiveness and do something about it.

This 12-point difference reminds me of the monkey who climbs all the way to the top of the tree. Once he reaches the top he looks back and sees a crowd of people staring up at him. As he looks at this crowd he sees them pointing and smiling. Success! Right? But what is it that the people are seeing when they look up from the ground to the monkey in the tree? They are laughing as the monkey is exposing his backside.

Are you at the top of the tree? What do you see? What do the non-managers see of you?

Tommy Weir is managing director of leadership solutions at Kenexa

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Finance

Food security – Harvesting another’s crop

by Mona Alami
written by Mona Alami

Last year’s soaring food prices caused a global crisis that triggered a shopping spree on farm land around the world. Rich countries that normally import food have now bought up large tracts of land in poor food-exporting countries.

Arab countries have gotten in on the act, as a result of losing confidence in normal food supply chains. To ensure their food security, many have bought millions of hectares of farmland in Africa and Asia, creating offshore food sources in countries like Indonesia and Ethiopia.

“It seems that it has become an important concern for countries in the Arab region which want to meet the growing demands of their populations,” says Devlin Kuyek, a researcher at GRAIN, an international non-profit organization that supports small farmers.

Last year, Egypt signed a contract with Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir to produce 2 million tons of wheat per year in the north of Sudan for export to Egypt, according to GRAIN, which includes Egypt in a report on “land grabbing” countries. Egypt has also leased 840,000 hectares from the Ugandan government, which represents about 2.2 percent of Uganda’s total area.

Countries such as Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Libya, Jordan, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have also been featured in GRAIN’s land grabbers report. In September 2008, the governments of Qatar and Vietnam announced plans for a $1 billion joint investment fund, of which some $900 million was invested by Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund, the Qatar Investment Authority.

“In August 2008, Ethiopia’s prime minister told the Financial Times that he was eager to give Saudi investors access to ‘hundreds of thousands’ of hectares of farmland for investment and development,” notes GRAIN’s report.

“It is however very difficult to estimate the total value of land grabbed today as most deals remain in the negotiations phase and are, for the most [part], very obscure,” says Kuyek.

But the United Nations’ Olivier de Schutter, the UN’s special rapporteur on the right to food, quotes an estimate from International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) that between 15 and 20 million hectares of farmland in developing countries have been subject to transactions or negotiations involving foreign investors since 2006.

Not always a fair deal
“States would be acting in violation of the human right to food if, by leasing or selling land to investors, whether domestic or foreign, they deprived the local population from access to productive resources indispensable to their livelihoods,” he said. “They would also be violating the right to food if they negotiated agreements that might lead to a situation of food insecurity, a dependency on foreign aid or on increasingly volatile international markets.”

The land purchased by countries is usually fertile farm land with relatively easy access to water.

Some say the purchases can have adverse repercussions on indigenous people and pastoral populations who are evicted from the land they have used for generations for cultivation and irrigation.

“Land grabs are becoming institutionalized as clear strategies that are developed by governments, which also rely on the private sector and international organizations,” insists Kuyek.

For example, the Saudi Eastern Province Chamber of Commerce has sent a circular to all businessmen in the eastern region, directing them to invest in agriculture projects overseas, following a government directive that the private business sector should undertake agricultural production ventures abroad, according to the Saudi Gazette.

“The objective is to achieve long-term food security for Saudi Arabia and secure a continuous supply of food to the kingdom at low and fair prices,” Adnan al-Naeim, secretary general of the Asharqia Chamber in the Eastern Province, told the Gazette.

The buyers
Governments, often through sovereign wealth funds, are negotiating acquisition or lease of farming land.

“The Bin Laden Group signed an agreement to invest about $4.3 billion, on behalf of a consortium of 15 Saudi investors [know as] the Middle East Foodstuff Consortium, to develop 500,000 hectares of rice land in Indonesia,” the GRAIN report said.

In August 2008, three Gulf firms — Abu Dhabi Investment House (ADIH), Ithmaar Bank and Gulf Finance House — announced the creation of AgriCapital, a new $1 billion Islamic investment fund which purchases land overseas to produce food for the region, as well as fund biotechnology research.

The report also quoted Abraaj Capital, a private equity firm, saying it had acquired, together with the UAE government, about 324,000 hectares of farmland in Pakistan for rice and wheat production.

“Gulf countries are also operating through the Islamic Development Bank,” adds Kuyek.
A spokesperson at Abraaj, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Executive, “This is the first time I have heard of such a thing.” ADIH and the Binladen group did not reply to requests for comment.

Beyond food security concerns, it appears that land purchases are increasingly being perceived as a powerful investment tool for global firms. A flurry of investment companies and private funds have been acquiring farmland around the globe, banking on increasing food prices in the future and cheap fertile land. Among the companies named by the GRAIN report are Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, Black Rock and the International Finance Corporation.

“In August 2008, Goldman Sachs invested $300 million to acquire full control over more than 10 poultry farms in Hunan and Fujian provinces in China,” says the report.

In spite of the power and influence these countries and international companies exert, more and more opposition groups are fighting the deals.

“In the Philippines and Madagascar, opposition groups are challenging such deals and taking them to the government,” says Kuyek.

But many countries around the world remain unaware of the possible dangers lurking in the near future. According to the Saudi Gazette, Saudi Arabia launched a major food security initiative, in cooperation with the International Fund for Agricultural Development, identifying Mauritania, Yemen, Algeria, Senegal, Sudan, Morocco, Bosnia and Lebanon as countries where land may be purchased to guarantee food security. 

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Finance

IPO Watch – A Saudi solo

by Executive Staff
written by Executive Staff

Optimism about a year-end pickup in initial public offerings (IPOs) cannot conceal that August was yet another bone-dry month, which continued the plunge of all IPO measures in the MENA region in 2009.

Only one company, the Saudi medical services firm Al Mouwasat, undertook a subscription in the Gulf Cooperation Council last month. Al Mouwasat offered 7.5 million shares in a bid to raise $88 million; it did not announce any over-subscription after its IPO closed on August 21.

Another company undertook an IPO on the floundering Damascus Securities Exchange (DSE): Qatar National Bank-Syria. The company said its offering of 3.4 million shares for $37 million met with substantial demand, resulting in an over-subscription of almost 2.5 times. The IPO closed on August 10.

While the lowdown in regional IPO activity in August has been attributed to a mixture of uninspiring first-half results, the summer vacation season and the beginning of Ramadan, it keeps local and global investment professionals waiting another month in limbo for the potential of Arab IPO markets to regain speed.

Slim pickings
So far this year only 12 companies have approached public markets, compared to 50 during the same period in 2008. The total amount of capital raised so far this year has dropped 85 percent from $13.12 billion to $1.98 billion, half of which came from the IPO of Qatar’s Vodafone.

Average oversubscription levels have come down considerably from 15.71x in the first 8 months of 2008 to 3.69x over the same period in 2009.

Although the drop in oversubscription levels may be reflective of the prevailing risk-averseness among investors, some see it as a positive development.

“We stand at a much healthier level of oversubscription because investors are being allotted a larger number of shares, so they do not lose interest anymore,” an associate vice president at a major Saudi investment bank told Regional Press Network on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak with the media.

The executive attributed the slowdown in the number of IPOs in the kingdom to regulatory and administrative red tape, adding that “the IPO market in Saudi Arabia is not suffering, and the Capital Market Authority is in fact studying many applications.”

Indeed, after being propelled to the global leadership list of public offerings in 2008, Saudi Arabia again flexed its muscles in 2009 with the number of issues reaching eight and raising almost $1 billion.

Companies were able to raise 10 times more in 13 offerings during the same period in 2008, but the lower 2009 number of Saudi IPOs contrasts positively with that of neighboring United Arab Emirates, where IPO activity has stalled. Activity in the UAE fell by eight IPOs and $1.3 billion raised over the same period last year.

Amman’s IPO activity also came to a halt in 2009 through August, after 13 offerings and a total offering size of $125 million during the same period in 2008. Similarly, no IPOs have been registered in Cairo, Casablanca, or Muscat so far in 2009, after strong showings in 2008.
“Why are the Saudis so dominant?” asked Jeff Singer, CEO of NASDAQ Dubai in a recent Ernst & Young report. “You have a lot of companies that really never went public… The stock exchange in the last few years has become a truly viable market. We’re seeing what looks like a pent-up demand for companies going public.”

Saudi IPOs have indeed become the torch bearers of the move to public ownership in the region. Most recently, shareholders of SABB Takaful, one of the Saudi’s largest insurance companies, voted to increase the company’s capital by issuing shares.

The pipeline for the kingdom also holds further promises. Three insurers — Buruj for Cooperative Insurance, Al Alamiya for Commerce and Services and Gulf General Cooperative Insurance Company are scheduled to open their IPOs in early October. These insurance companies have also received CMA approval to sell shares.

The success of IPO offerings in the kingdom is in fact surpassing the initial offering stage to reach the secondary market. Ace Arabia and AXA Cooperative Insurance, whose IPOs were 11.35x and 5.71x oversubscribed, marked their Saudi stock market debut with whopping 662 percent and 267 percent spikes on their first day of trading.

Similarly, Saudi Steel Pipe Company and National Petrochemical Company which were 3.44x and 2.11x oversubscribed, respectively, and ran up 34 percent and 30.5 percent respectively on their first day of trading in August.

NASDAQ Dubai’s Singer, in his interview with Ernst & Young, also expressed optimism that the successful Saudi trend will continue.
“We’ll continue to see more companies out of Saudi Arabia than anywhere else in the Gulf. And I don’t think it’s anywhere near the demand that would exist if the market conditions were better than are right now,” he added.

Despite the concentration of IPOs in the kingdom, Bahrain, Tunisia and Syria’s markets still saw a bit of IPO activity.

Outside the Saudi game
Bahrain’s Gulf Finance House said in August it had received central bank authorization for a capital increase and, pending shareholder approval, plans a $300 million rights issue to bolster its balance sheet and fund possible investments. In addition, Manama-based Takaful International Co, an Islamic insurer, announced a 20 percent rights issue for September that will increase its capital by $2.6 million to expand its business and underwriting capacity.

In Tunisia, cement company Les Ciments de Bizerte announced plans to raise $76.3 million to finance the expansion of the plant and increase the clinker production capacity.
In the Levant, Syria is expected to see several public offerings throughout the rest of 2009, as the DSE works to increase the number of its publicly-listed companies.

Besides Qatar National Bank-Syria, which closed its IPO with a 2.5x oversubscription, Audi Bank Syria and Banque Bemo Saudi Fransi successfully increased their capital through share issuances.
The list for the next several months includes additional financial firms, of which Albaraka Bank Syria’s IPO has been scheduled for the first week of October.

Lebanon’s only action came from privately-owned chocolatier, Patchi, which said that the group is preparing for a bourse listing on the London and Dubai stock exchanges to finance international expansion.
The region’s most disappointing market remains the UAE, where no equity capital has been raised so far in 2009. A thin ray of hope came from the deputy CEO of the Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA) Mariam Butti al-Suwaidi, who said that “markets are expected to witness one IPO from a local company,” adding that “the number of applications that the SCA received since the beginning of the current year is three.”

Nevertheless, the bittersweet reality is that the practical standstill of IPO markets in several MENA countries is a situation shared by many abroad, as a result of violent equity market fluctuations and fears of being publicly snubbed by investors.

Commenting on the global drop in share issues, Edward Law, co-head of Western Europe Equity Capital Markets at Deutsche Bank, said that “companies recognize that now is not an easy time to IPO. At the moment, they are looking for broader guidance on the direction of the economy — on when we are going to see some stability in the macro environment and also in underlying equity markets.”

NASDAQ Dubai’s Singer added that “valuations across all asset classes have declined significantly in the last 12 to 18 months, and the ability to achieve an attractive valuation is an important driver to encourage owners of potential IPO candidates to sell these assets through the public markets.”

Singer predicted that “the fourth quarter of 2009 is most likely the realistic time here for when the Middle East IPO markets will open up.”

Regional Press Network

 

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Real estate

UAE – Investors vs. developers

by Nada Nohra
written by Nada Nohra

Property disputes between real estate developers and investors in the United Arab Emirates have increased since the financial crisis crippled the country’s property market. Dubai’s property court has already recorded 833 dispute cases in the first six months of this year.

Analysts told Executive they believe numerous cases have not reached the courts yet, and with the continuing recession, the number is likely to increase in the coming months.

Little or no confidence 
The rise in the number of disputes stems mainly from Dubai’s property values decreasing and the sudden lack of credit and investors, which caused many projects to be put on hold or canceled. As a result, investors’ confidence in the market plunged and they started questioning if the projects would actually be delivered.

Jim Delkousis, partner and the head of mitigation and arbitration at the law firm DLA Piper, said these disputes are a catch 22: Investors claim that developments are not being built quickly enough and thus withhold further payments. On the other hand, developers say they will have to stop building due to investors’ payment defaults.

Nick Clayson, real estate partner at the international legal practice firm Norton Rose agrees, adding that there may be other parties involved who could slow the progress of construction and make the issue even more complicated.

“Some of the reasons why the properties are not being finished are because of disputes between building contractors and developers,” he said.
Investor confidence is also lower when dealing with developers who are delivering their first project, as they have no track record and are more likely to fail.

“Now that times are more difficult, a number of purchasers and investors are asking themselves if the developers are capable of completing their developments as they have little or no history to back them,” said Delkousis. Still, to know who to blame, each case has to be considered separately.

Investor groups
As investors started to worry about the completion of projects, they formed investor groups, putting themselves in a stronger position against developers. Clayson said that even though they can take no legal action as a group, they can discuss the issue and agree on taking the same steps.

One example is the 100 investors who own more than 200 apartments in the Abu Dhabi Tameer Towers that formed an investor group because they were concerned about the progress of the $1.64 billion project.

“Three CEOs in 15 months, cancelation of contracts, sacking of over half of its staff and no progress on site initiated our concern,” said one of the Tameer investors who didn’t want to be named because of the legal proceedings. 

Since the group was formed, the 100 individuals stopped making payments, explains the investor. He adds that they do not wish to discredit Tameer in any way, but have put forward a series of questions that they would like to see answered.
“We put these questions through ‘The National’ (newspaper) but they never got answered — Tameer wishes to deal individually and not with a group,” he said.

Tameer was unavailable to comment about the issue. Frederico Tauber, the company’s president, told Arabian Business in May that he would be glad to talk with concerned investors, but the company will not be able to return the money invested. He also said that some investors thought the project was canceled, which he said was a “misunderstanding.” In July, Tauber also told Arabian Business they had approached investors trying to understand their concerns, but some were reluctant to come forward. The Tameer investor said the company did not promise the group anything.

“They did say that they would work with all individuals to solve their payment issues and concerns — [a] divide and conquer strategy we feel, [as] individuals have less power compared to a collective group,” the investor said.

He also added that work on the site at the Tameer Towers has been progressing since August, but not to the extent that was promised. 
“Our way forward — well we are still evaluating this as a group — we have some good leads through some of the group’s members which we are looking into,” the investor said.

Lack of transparency
The recession is the main reason behind these disputes, but certainly not the only one. Another important factor that is negatively effecting the market is the lack of transparency between investors and developers.
“The communication is not as good as it should be, investors do not always know what is happening and they are not being kept fully informed by the developers,” said Delkousis.
The blame does not fall only on developers, since some companies might be very transparent and have offered solutions, given the current market situation. Some investors might also be “closing their minds to discussing the issue of delays, payments and things like that with developers,” said Clayson. 

Property court
The Dubai Property Court started functioning in September 2008. Delkousis draws a paralell between the courts and the issue of transparency, saying that investors are not being able to derive any guidance for their own case because most of the cases are private, confidential and run in Arabic.

It is expected that the number of property disputes will increase further, since some investors and developers are waiting to see what the next step of the other party will be. On the other hand, some cases might not even reach court. Clayson says that it would be much better for everyone to negotiate rather than go through the demanding process. Some developers might not even continue pursuing end-users who surely have no money left.

“It can be very time consuming and costly. They might be happy enough to accept that they will not get their money… [and] walk away,” said Clayson.

What about the laws?
One of the most important laws that is supposed to back investors is the escrow law, which came into effect on June 28, 2007. It applies to developers selling units off-plan and stipulates that payments by investors should be put into a special escrow account, which will be used solely for the designated project.

Delkousis said that having an escrow account is better for the purchaser, but it doesn’t make disputes easier to solve. “Investors and developers are fighting to see who is entitled to the money in the escrow [which] will depend on many things, including which party breached the contract,” he said.

Clayson said that a problem with the escrow law is that developers have been able to use the payments to pay for the land, thus leaving no money for construction and for refund if the project is canceled.

“Going forward, the escrow law now does not allow land payments to be made, that is my understanding from having spoken to the land department,” said Clayson. He added that the law should be taken one step further, and not used until the project is completed. Therefore in the case of any dispute, investors will be able to take their money back.

Going forward
The more investors hear about projects not being delivered, the more they are nervous about their  money, and the more disputes arise. So far, the market has not begun to settle down.
“I think it is safe to say that the [number of] cases is still increasing,” said Delkousis.

Clayson said investors and developers should understand that they are entering into a long-term deal, so due-diligence is necessary to ensure both parties can deliver. From the regulatory point of view, he said that the way for the market to recover is first to have a consistent legal regime. 

“Investors should be able to make their investment decisions knowing that the law is certain and will be applied fairly and consistently. That’s what the aim should be so that the market will recover,” he said.

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