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Money Matters

GDR commentary

by Executive Contributor September 3, 2000
written by Executive Contributor

SOLIDERE

The general investor sentiment

toward the Lebanese GDRs

remains unchanged with local and

foreign investors waiting for the

upcoming elections for an efficient

macroeconomic policy. Solidere’s

GDR rose 15.28% to $6.225 (14/7)

as investors perhaps smelled a bargain,

only to fall back 3.61 % to $6

(21/7), then again drop 7 .5% to$ 5.55 as the economic condition worsened

with no signs of relief from the depressed real estate sector (28/7).

By early August, Solidere’s GDR edged up 0.9% to $5.6, as prince Al

Walid reconsidered plans to build a $250-million Four Seasons hotel,

as well as a residential apartment complex in downtown Beirut (4/8).

AUDI

Audi’s GDR was no different than

the rest of the GDRs or for that mat-

25

ter the economy in general with the

macroeconomic conditions still on 20

the downside and political instability

due to the elections putting the economy

on hold. Audi’s GDR was 15

priced at $19 .18 ( 14/7) and remained

there for a week (21/7).

By the end of July, news from the ministry of finance on the state of the

public deficit discouraged investors even more, driving Audi’s price

down 1.2% to $18.95 (28/7). Nevertheless, Audi regained some of its

losses as it was chosen as the best bank in Lebanon. It rose 1.58% to

$19.25 (4/8), and stayed at that level till mid-August (11/8)

BLOM

BLOM’s GDR held firm this

month despite several negative

economic reports by S&P, EIU

(Economic Intelligence Unit) and

the ministry of finance, which

pushed most of the Lebanese

GDRs listed on the international

down as foreign investors

interest was slowly fading.

BLOM’s GDR remained at $22.5 for the second half of July

(14/7)(2117)(28/7), mirroring the stagnation of the local economy. It

then edged up 2.22% to $23 ( 4/8).

By mid-August, BLOM’s GDR lost $0.1 to $22.9 as investors cashed

in the gains (l 1/8)

BLC

BLC’s GDR had the poorest perfor- 15

mance among all the GDRs losing

almost 7 .5% of its value in the past 12

four weeks. BLC’s GDR fell 0.32%

to $7.65 (14/7) as the economy 9

showed little growth and debt servicing

exceeding public revenues 6

for the first time, with the deficit

sp~nding ratio reaching 53% in the

first half of the year. Investors’ fear from a possible S&P downgrade was

revived, sending BLC’s GDR down 0.65% to $7.6 (28/7). A report from

the Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU), warning about the deteriorating

economic conditions pushed all the GDRs down; BLC dropped 6.58% to

$7.1 (4/8) and remained there (11/8).

MOROCCO

Moroccan equities conti1’°ed to head south, breaking the

~ey 700-point psychological level as weak macroeconomic

performance and lack of foreign funds continued

to weigh negatively on sentiment. The highlight of the

month was the listing of mining company Managem,

which managed to add some interest to an otherwise quiet

market. Managem stole the limelight, outperforming its

parent holding ONA Group, and accounting for a big

chunk of trading activity.

EGYPT

The Cairo Stock Exchange continued to lose ground, suffering

another month of severe losses with institutional

investors remaining mostly on the sidelines. The lack of positive

economic news and continuous pressure on the pound

has caused the market to decline almost 40% so far this year.

Trading activity was mostly concentrated in the telecom sector

with the successful closing of Orascom Telecom’ s ( OT)

IPO, which was 1.7 times oversubscribed. OT’s attractive

pricing (EP55.568) prompted many investors to sell stakes

in MobiNil (-3%) and invest instead in the new issue.

JORDAN

Investors at the Amman Stock Exchange welcomed the

modest rebound in share prices at the end of July following

weeks of consecutive declines. The small upturn was

primarily driven by an impressive rise in the Arab Bank

shares. However, mixed semi-annual results for most

listed firms kept sentiment subdued with the index hovering

around the 140-point psychological level. Mixed performance

was recorded in the insurance, industrial and

banking sectors, while the services sector lost ground

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Money Matters

Swallowed up

by Executive Editors September 3, 2000
written by Executive Editors

S ociete Generate Libano-Europeenne

de Banque (SGLEB) has reportedly

acquired the financially troubled lnaash

Bank in a deal worth $50 million. The

Central Bank had recently taken control of

lnaash after the J affal family relinquished its

84% stake. The bank had allegedly been in

violation of certain lending regulations.

SGLEB, which is half-owned by France’s

Societe Generale, will add 17 branches to its

30-branch network, vastly expanding the

reach of the financial institution and giving

it a presence in the South and Beirut’s

southern suburbs. “They were restricted in

opening new branches so they bought

lnaash,” says one banking analyst. SGLEB

is in an expansion mode. The bank has

moved into the Jordanian market and, a

couple of months ago, it purchased a

majority share of the local brokerage firm

Fidus. SGLEB registered profits of $18

million last year. lnaash had a capital of $10

million, assets worth $356 million and

$290 million in customer deposits in 1999

Safe bet

A rab Bank is planning a regular issue of

Investment Linked Deposits (ILD),

which will be offered with a choice of

indices. The US dollar-based deposits

guarantee that investors will not lose their

capital. The ILDs also, to some extent,

guarantee a certain return on an investor’s

money. The issue of the ILDs follows the

success of an earlier issue by Arab Bank. It

is linked to one or a basket of major

indices. These include the Nikkei 225,

Standard & Poor’s 500, Hang Seng or the

DJ Eurostoxx 50. “Instead of a fixed interest

rate, you get a return based on the

increase in the indices,” says Rim Zanabili,

senior relationship manager at Arab Bank.

“Once a new ILD is opened, clients have

four to six weeks to invest.” The minimum

deposit is $20,000.

Fast mover

A 1-Mawarid has become the first

Lebanese bank since the Israeli

withdrawal to open a branch in the former

occupied zone. The new branch is located

in Hasbaya. It has six employees and

serves a population of around 50,000 people,

including those living in outlying

.1 areas and villages. Only Fransabank –

which has been operating branches in

Marjayoun, Bint Jbeil and Jezzine since the

early ’90s – has had a presence in the

zone. “The next closest bank is at least a

half-hour’s drive away,” says Marwan

Kheireddine, AI-Mawarid’s chairman.

“Most of the local residents are middleclass

employees, so they are the ideal target

market for our retail products.”

Kheireddine is originally from Hasbaya

and his familiarity with the area and many

of the locals who live there helps assure that

he will have a loyal clienl base. The medium-

sized bank had profits of $1.1 million

in 1999, up a full 26.9% from the previous

year. Its assets increased by 32% to $30.19

million. Al-Mawarid has over 40,000

accounts and has extended 17,000 loans, averaging around $2,000 each.

Current accounts

Allied Business Bank (ABB) and

Societe Nationale d’ Assurance (SNA)

have launched a new set of bancassurance

products called H.imaya. The policies were

developed by SNA and will be marketed

exclusively by ABB to its clients. These

include savings-with-insurance plans for

education and retirement benefits as well

some traditional policies. ”We have to keep up

with the worldwide trend that makes it possible

for clients to handle all of their financial

transactions – namely banking, investment

and insurance – at one location, a sort of

financial supermarket,” says Nada Assaf,

ABB’s manager of research and development.

A number of banks in Lebanon have

either started theirown insurance company or

have bought majority shares in established

firms. Banque du Li ban et d’ Outre Mer is one

of Arope’s major shareholders and Byblos

Bank owns ADIR (see pp. 32).

The casino cashes in

Casino du Liban (CCL) saw profits

jump to $5.2 million in the first half of

2000, a 60% increase over the same period

last year. Profits were just $3.6 million in the

first half of 1999. Revenues for the first half

of 2000 totaled $42 million. The casino

saved some $5.4 million by renegotiating

contracts. It is also trying to change the contract

with Abela Development and Tourism

Company and the London Clubs responsible

for running the gaming facilities. But the

casino is not as lucky as it may seem. The

company owes the London Clubs some $5

million and the ministry of finance is

demanding that the casino pay $23 million

in back taxes from slot machine revenues, a

case that is now before the Shura council.

The new Audi

convertible

B anque Audi has launched a new threeyear

convertible bond linked to the

bank’s global depository receipts (GDRs)

and carrying a fixed rate of return. The bonds

are being marketed towards Audi’s retail

depositors. The minimum investment is

$1,000. The paper will offer investors a return

of6%, 7% or8% and are priced at$23.81, $25

and $27.03. Interest is paid semi-annually.

The GDRs’ issue price in 1997 was $27!. This

·marks the second issuance of convertible

bonds in post-war Lebanon. The first ones

were issued by Ciments de Sibline in 1996.

Retail depositors at Audi’s 61 branches will

have the right to exchange the bonds any time

during the paper’s lifetime. Over $75 million

in bonds will be issued. The first tranche, to be

sold in August, is not expected to exceed $30

million. ‘The timing is right because analysts

consider the bank’s GDRs undervalued,” says

Nabil Chaya, head of capital markets at Audi.

Rolling downhill

1999 suffered a drop of 17%. Until the end of

June this year, sales fell 28% compared to the

same period last year. Rymco’s shares,

which are traded on the Beirut Stock

Exchange, have been stagnant, just like the

rest of the stock market. They have

remained at or below $2.50 since the beginning

of the year.

Babv steps

S yria has taken the first steps toward

opening up its state controlled banking

system by granting three Lebanese

banks permission to open branches in the

country’s free trade zones. Societe

Generale Libano-Europeenne de Bank,

Fransabank and Banque Europeenne pour le

Moyen-Orient are allowed to provide banking

services to Syrian companies operating

within the free zones,

provided that each

bank maintains a

minimum currency

capital of $11 million.

But the move is

not likely to result in

any major financial

windfall for the

banks that open in

the zones, says

Maurice Iskander, an

analyst for Thomson

Financial BankWatch.

“There are only

about 700 companies

in the free zones,

most of which already do business with

Lebanese banks,” he says. “Yes, it’s interesting

to set up a bank there. How profitable

it will be, I don ‘t know.” But the

move could be a precursor to much bigger

reforms. The Syrian government is reportedly

studying legislation that will allow foreign

banks to open branches throughout the

country. Last month, Mustapha Miro, the

Syrian prime minister, announced that foreign

banks were welcome in Syria, as long

as they had a local partner. Reforming

Syria’s state controlled economy is

believed to be one of the top priorities of new

president Bashar Al-Assad.

Trade aid

The Arab Trade Finance Program (ATFP)

has extended to Byblos Bank and Credit

Libanais lines of credit worth $20 million

and $10 million respectively, to facilitate

trade transactions with Arab countries. ATFP

had previously granted the Lebanese government

a $40 mill ion loan for the same purpose.

The ATFP has so far granted several

Lebanese financial institutions a total of 37

lines of credit, worth some $251 million. The

Credit Libanais program includes deals to

import crude oi l, which could prove fruitful

should work resume on the refineries. “Loans

wilJ be given at Libor for six months and at

Libor plus 1/8 for one year. But the bank will

add a risk factor of 1 % to 2%, depending on

the project and the client,” says Georges

Khoury, assistant general manager of Credit

Libanais Investment Bank.

Bucking the trend

At a time when most banks are struggling

to maintain profit, Banque

Europeenne pour le Moyen-Orient (BEMO)

has been seeing some healthy earnings.

Profits for the sector dropped 13% in 1999,

but BEMO’s earnings shot up to $2.07 for the

first half of 2000, a full 18.7% increase

compared to the same period last year.

Customer deposits climbed 35% and total

assets increased 28.8%. While most

Lebanese banks are reducing the amount of

money they lend to private sector companies,

BEMO increased its lending 31 .4%.

“BEMO’s performance is obviously working

against the tide in the banking sector,” says

Nicolas Sawan, head of trading at Lebanon

Invest. The bank is also bucking the trend at

the Beirut Stock Exchange. While there is little

activity on the market, BEMO’s shares

climbed 8% last month, to $3.25.

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Money Matters

come together

by Avo Tavoukdjian September 3, 2000
written by Avo Tavoukdjian

Y ou don’t have to pick up a copy of

the National Enquirer to know

that insurance firms are going to

bed with banks these days. The megamerger

of Citicorp and Travelers Insurance

Group created the $700 billion giant

Citigroup almost two years ago, and

helped precipitate the blurring of lines in the

US financial sector – a trend that was

already well established in Europe.

France-based insurer Axa, for example,

has an asset management portfolio of $700

billion, making it the fourth-largest money manager after Union Bank of Switzerland,

Fidelity and Credit Suisse.

Here in Lebanon, the business of banks and

insurance companies is also coming closer

together, albeit on a smaller scale. “It’s the

future. People are looking for a one-stop

shop, and banks are creating a sort of financial

supermarket,” says William Salem,

head of marketing for SNA, the first insurance

firm to start selling insurance in banks.

SNA has created a worldwide group accident

policy, which it sells to banks, and has

developed a complete line of retail insurance

products that are sold at Banque Audi and

BBAC, both shareholders in SNA.

At least ten banks have started their own

insurance companies while others are buying

into existing insurers. Banque du Liban

et d’Outre Mer is a major shareholder in

Arope; Byblos Bank owns all of ADIR;

Banque Audi has a I 0% stake in Societe

Nationale d’ Assurance (SNA) and is finalizing

its recent acquisition ofLibanoArabe.

So what do these profit-driven partners get

out of this love affair? Insurers are the first to

benefit. Banks throw a constant stream of

business their way. Insurance companies

that are owned by banks are guaranteed captive

business. Before granting a loan, a bank

usually requires a client to purchase one or

more policies. These policies virtually

ensure that a bank will get back its money. A

personal loan is accompanied by life or disability

insurance. Car loans must come with

automobile insurance. A housing loan generally

comes with life insurance as well as fire

or natural disaster policies. “This is our

bread and butter,” says Fateh Bekdache,

general manager of Arope insurance.

“Everyday the bank’s branches are open, I’m getting cash business,” he adds. In 1999,

at least a third of Arope’s $5.5 million portfolio

was captive business, policies that

BLOM clients were required to buy.

Most of the insurance pobcies that are

sold through banks, such as life, fire and

marine, are the most profitable forms of

coverage. At least half of ADIR’s $5.2 million

portfolio in 1999 was in life, and the

firm’s earnings were $1.6 million.

Insurance companies that rely on banks for

business are also able to lessen their

reliance on the volatile and high-risk market

for medical coverage. “We’re not interested

in hospitalization,” says Jean Hleiss, general

manager of ADIR. “Others are building

their market share on [hospitalization] and

that’s why they are losing.” But medical

policies account for 33% of Arope’s business.

Although a third of that is BLOM’s medical group, the insurer’s heavy reliance

on health coverage has taken its toll on

profits. Out of $5.5 million in revenues in

1999, earnings were less than $475,000.

Insurers receiving captive business from

banks do away with long collection periods

and receivables. Collection problems have

contributed to the collapse of more than one

insurance firm. With banks, all payments are

made in cash. The insurer has no receivables.

At least 80% of ADIR’s portfolio comes

from Byblos Bank, which pays upfront.

“When BLOM issues a loan, they take the

money for the insurance from the customer

and give it to me,” says Bekdache. “We get

paid ahead and the balance is always zero.”

And by relying on a bank for business,

there are no broker’s charges. ”The commission

rates in our business are very high,”

says Bekdache. “I don’t have to pay that for

business coming from the bank.” Many brokers

are not reliable payers. They tend to

demand extended payment terms for clients

and, says Joseph Issa, lawyer for Middle

East Assurance and Reinsurance Company,

“some brokers don’t pass on everything

they collect from the clients. They pay the

money they’ve collected in parts even

though the client has paid up.” At the same

time, brokers often transfer portfolios from

one company to another every time they

find a better deal. “If you depend on a broker

who has a very large portfolio and he

decides to leave, you have a problem,” says

Bekdache. Arope has already reduced its

broker-based business from 33% of its total

sales to less than 20%.

The banks also benefit from the relationship

by getting a share in the profits. Byblos

Bank is entitled to the $1.6 million in earnings

made by ADIR. BLOM gets 90% of Arope’s profits. “We look at it as an investment,

a diversification of the bank’s products,

which leads to additional profits,”

says Faisal Nsouli, head of research and

development at Byblos Bank. “We rely

heavily on life and homeowner policies.

Having a bank-owned insurance company is

more efficient and more reliable.” At the

same time, banks are able to tailor insurance

products for their clients. A fi vi::-year pt::rsonal

loan can be guaranteed by a life insurance

policy for the same period.

But there are downsides to the bank-insurance

company connection. An insurer that

depends solely on a bank to provide it with

business is restricting its own growth. And in

the insurance business, as your portfolio

grows, your risk diminishes. “It’s not healthy

to depend on the bank all the time,” says

Bekdache. “Direct business will generate

more for you.” About a third of Arope’s total

revenues, or $1.8 million, came from direct

sales in 1999. ADIR is also considering stepping

out of Byblos Bank’s shadow and

expanding into direct sales. “We are seeking

to increase our market share as well as

exploring new markets,” says Hleiss.

There are those who believe that this type of

marriage between banks and insurers denies

consumers the basic right to choose to do

business with another insurance company.

”Banks are actually pushing clients to buy

insurance from companies, which are either

theirs, or with which they have made

arrangements,” says Abraham Matossian,

chairman of Al-Mashrek. “It’s a package deal

and the client cannot refuse. Bancassurance is

important abroad, but the client is not obliged

to accept what the bank offers. He can either

accept what’s offered or go with another

insurer. Here there is no choice.”

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Money Matters

Vulnerable

by Peter willems September 3, 2000
written by Peter willems

T he rating agency just won’t quit. Two

months ago Standard & Poor’s

(S&P) threatened that if the government

didn’t do something about fiscal problems

running wild, Lebanon would be downgraded

later this year. S&P’s latest incoming

targeted the country’s most cherished sectorthe

banks. Rest assured: The recent warning

did not highlight problems within the banks.

Whether or not the government heeds S&P’s

earlier signal will determine to a great extent

the problems that banks may face.

The agency went after financial systems

around the world that are vulnerable or

already tasting deterioration of credit quality.

If, by chance, defaulting on loan payments

reaches critical mass, banks could experience

a credit bust. Out of 15 banking systems

cited by S&P, US banks’ credit exposure

could be hit if the booming economy comes

to an end with a hard landing. Japanese banks

cannot prosper as the country’s recovery

from its financial crisis a decade ago is moving

slowly. Lebanese banks, on the other hand, are operating

in a feeble

economy and if it’s

not resuscitated in the

near future, loan portfolios could be in jeopardy.

“Lebanon is a special case,” says

Navaid Farooq, S&P’s sovereign analyst for

the Middle East and North Africa. “It’s about

macroeconomic conditions. We’re not concerned

about the banks themselves as much as

the environment they operate in, which is

riskier due to the government’s severe fiscal

imbalances.”

Relying on a rescue team to pull the

economy out of its dismal state is in question.

The administration, in office for two

years, put together a fivt:-year plan that

included lowering the debt, correcting fiscal

imbalances and stimulating growth.

Instead, it let debt to GDP climb from

118% at the end of 1998 to 140%. In the first

half of 2000, the budget deficit reached

53%, way above this year’s target of

37.3%. Economist Intelligence Unit reports that GDP growth fell to – l % in

1999 and predicts only 0.5% this year.

Right now there is a glimmer of hope that the

elections will bring in a new government able

to repair the crippled market. But the next government

has little room to maneuver. After debt

servicing and salaries and wages, the government

can only play with about 15% of its

expenditures – something they can’t reduce

since it’s their meager contribution to growth.

Raising taxes again to increase revenue

would bury the economy even further.

Many analysts believe emergency action

must be taken. ”The most important thing is

for the government to get money today,”

says Marwan Barakat, head of research at

Banque Audi. “It must relieve debt and debt

servicing as soon as possible.” He suggests

selling mobile phone licenses – $2. 7 billion

was lost when the government rejected offers from LibanCell and Cellis – and

picking up the pace on privatization. But

once a new government settles in, it might

be too late to make an impact this year. And

some wonder whether any Lebanese

administration can unite and generate political

will to implement solution~ “I don’t pin

any hopes on anybody anymore,” say~ um: analyst.

“We have to be realistic:

All government

policies will be dictated

by political interests, not

political will.”

On the upside, unlike the

wayward government,

most banks have the discipline

to prepare for the

worst. “Most of the banks

are low on lending compared

to other countries,

which gives them a lot of fat,” says Andrew Stephens, head of retail at

Credit Libanais. “And most have significant

assets in Lebanese T-bills. The banks do not

face deep problems.” By the end of June, the

loan-to-deposit ratio for the sector was 42%.

And expecting hard times, banks have

become less generous handing out money.

Loan growth fell from 20.5% in 1998 to

12.7% last year. Lending up to the end of June

increased only 3.7%. The banks are also high

on liquidity: Liquid assets to total assets

stood at 68% in the first half of 2000.

Creating a cushion using conservative tactics

makes it unlikely for numerous banks to

fall if defaulting on loans accelerates. “The

banks will get into problems only if they stop

lending prudently and start lending outside

certain banking criteria, as a couple of them

have done,” says Stephens. One case was

Inaash Bank. Found with bad loans and

fishy lending in violation of regulations, the

central bank stepped in and sold it to Societe

Generale Libano-Europeenne de Banque.

If obituaries are rare, one area will be difficult

to defend: profits. “Not many banks will

fail in the near future,” says Bassam

Yammine, senior manager of corporate

finance at Lebanon Invest. “Banks have

enough ammunition, especially the large

ones, to continue. I’m worrying mostly about

the bottom line.” There have already been

attacks on banks’ earnings. Spreads have been pinched in recent years. With interest

rates on two-year government paper falling to

14%, stiff competition has kept deposit rates

up (around 12% on LBPdeposits). The economic

slowdown has put pressure on growth

in deposits and assets. An increase in deposits

fell from 20% in 1998 to 11 % last year. Nonperforming

loans are now starting to move up.

Doubtful loans to gross

loans inched up to 14%

last year from 13.75% in

1998. In June, they

climbed to 15.1 %.

After profits dropped 13%

for the sector in 1999 – a

blow after 40% average

annual profit growth

between 1993 and 1998 -many predict that earnings

will experience a similar fall this year. “Now adding

deterioration of asset quality and an increase

in provisioning to revenue stagnation and

tight spreads, profits will drop between 15%

to 20% this year,” says Yanunine.

Finding solutions for the banks to generate

better earnings will not be easy. Banks are still

heavily investing on a safe bet: Thirty-five percent

of assets are in T-bills. But with the

spreads in a vice and the option of increasing

lending to the private sector with higher

yields a no-no for now, the banks are in a catch

22. “With the loan ratio this low, banks cannot

make up the thin spreads on lending,” says

Stephens. “That’s about it for the bottom

line.” Banks have been moving more into

retail banking to help beef up non-interest

income. “It’s important for the banks to move

into products and services as profitable activities,”

says Haroutiun Samuelian, vice governor

at the central bank. “In the early ’80s,

non-interest income for US banks took up

20% of their revenues. Now it’s a 50/50 split

between interest and non-interest income.” But

retail banking has yet to pay off. It requires

high volume, which is difficult in a small

market, while other non-interest tools, like letters

of credit, have been pulled down with the

recession, damaging gains coming from new

products and services to make a difference.

As in any sector, downtime means lowering

costs. “Banks must focus on restructuring,

cleaning up, cost cutting,” says Yammine.

Banque du Liban et d’Outre-Mer, Lebanon’s

largest bank and one that is still enjoying

healthy profit growth, is not only conservative

in lending but has focused on reducing

expenses. Its cost-to-income ratio dropped to

34.7% after the first six months this year

from 38.4% at the end of 1999. But other

majors more aggressive expanding on retail

find it more difficult to contain costs. Banque

Audi’s and Byblos Bank’s cost-to-income

ratios have moved up this year. ”The human

cost is already low compared to other countries.

Plus, many banks, out of necessity, are

investing in new services which all have

costs,” says Stephens.

If economic agony is prolonged, the pace of

mergers and acquisitions may pick up-especially

small and medium-sized banks swallowed

up by larger ones. Out of the 63 banks

operating in the country, the top 20 carry the

most muscle. Over 90% of total profits are in

the top tier, which leaves less room for the rest

of the banks’ earnings to fall. “With consolidation,

economies of scale can help,” says

Samuelian. ”The sound ones will survive

while the weak ones will not.”

Going abroad would help. But up to now

Lebanese banks have been hesitant to fan

out across the region. This could change.

Syria, with a state-owned, dilapidated banking

system, is opening up. It just established

free-trade zones and three Lebanese banks got

the green light. The problem is having to wait

for the entire Syrian market to open up.

“Syria is the place,” says Stephens, “but not

tomorrow. Maybe the day after tomorrow.”

What’s more certain is that if banks

remain mostly entrenched in the Lebanese

market and the economy continues to falter,

it may take time for them to see glory days

in profit growth again.

September 3, 2000 0 comments
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Cover story

Withdrawal symptoms

by Robert Tuttle, Kirsten Vance & Peter willems June 27, 2000
written by Robert Tuttle, Kirsten Vance & Peter willems

Imad El-Hajj, president of American
Underwriters Group (AUG), probably
never thought of it, but his job is much
like that of a priest. In times of trouble, anxiety,
and worry, people come running to
him. AUG is among a handful of insurance
companies that provide war-on-land
coverage — insurance for damages caused during
a military conflict.

Demand for
these policies increased 25% in recent
months, with tension building prior to the
Israeli withdrawal — not just in the South but
in Beirut and even Jounieh. The price of premiums
shot up by almost a third. Recently,
a professional syndicate requested that its
medical insurance coverage be extended to
include injuries sustained during wartime.

Now the Israelis are gone after 22 years
of occupation. When EXECUTIVE went to
print, there was a sense of victory across the
country. But despite the celebrations, there
remains uncertainty about what will happen
in the weeks and months to come.

Business does not lend itself to an atmosphere
of uncertainty, whether one is a
banana seller, bank manager, importer, or
stockbroker. The withdrawal has perhaps
brought a feeling of greater uneasiness
than during the occupation, which the
Lebanese had grown accustomed to.

“People feel that a scenario will soon be
played out,” says El-Hajj. “What kind of
scenario, they don’t know.”

There are worries that border conflicts
could escalate into far more punishing air
strikes than what has been seen in recent
times. “Nobody is doing anything, just
waiting to see what will happen,” says
Mohammad Hamzeh, label manager of
Warner Music. “Nobody is making any
investments, nobody is planning any
events.”

At the Riviera Hotel, 20% of this
summer’s bookings are tentative compared
to last year’s near-zero rate. “They don’t
want to commit themselves,” says Nizar
Alouf, managing partner of the hotel.

The uneasiness of the region is affecting
international business circles. “There’s a lot
of indecisiveness from the Americans at this
point, and when you hear the word
Americans, that is business,” says Michael
Dunn, partner at Healey & Baker, a real
estate consultancy firm that helps local — but
primarily foreign — firms with their real estate
needs.

Even prior to Israel’s promises
of withdrawal, the political environment in
Lebanon had impacted its standing in the
investment community. Standard & Poor’s
sovereign rating for the country is BB with
a negative outlook, which is a speculative
grade allowing for political uncertainties.

“The probability of conflict after the
withdrawal is becoming higher,” says Elie
Yachoui, an economist, noting the Shebaa
Farms dispute and other issues. “For the
economy, that means a bad outlook for
investors and more recession.”

Probably the most disturbing murmurs
prior to the withdrawal emanated from
financial circles. In April, for the first time
in almost a year, the central bank was
forced to intervene in order to prop up the
pound. While figures were not disclosed,
analysts estimate that the bank spent
between $400 million and $450 million
over several weeks.

The pressure on the
pound had calmed down by the time of the
withdrawal, but the Lebanese currency’s
vulnerability is a cause for worry.

“If the withdrawal of Israeli troops in
South Lebanon leads to a deterioration of
stability, we will see a flight to foreign currencies,”
warns Navaid Farooq, Standard &
Poor’s sovereign analyst for the Middle
East and North Africa.

Even if the central
bank, in a bid to prevent the currency’s
collapse, hiked interest rates and started
spending its reserves, there could be panic.
“If depositors decide, in a mass hurry, to
switch from Lebanese pounds to US dollars,
then nothing that any commercial or central
bank can do could hold them,” says one
analyst. In the words of economist Marwan
Iskander: “The banking system could be
shaken to its roots.”

Depositors could rush the banks, changing
their pound-based accounts — 61% at the
beginning of 2000 — into dollars. And if that
happens, it could result in calamity.

People’s purchasing power and standard
of living could be reduced overnight. In a
country so dependent on imports, this
would be devastating. “If the pound were to
devalue by 20% or more, the circumstances
would become all that much harder.

Today, we have a difficult situation, and
if compounded further, it could become
explosive,” warns Iskander.

This would
spur high inflation. Many businesses and
individuals would not be able to repay
loans, and the value of Lebanese T-bills,
which represent a substantial portion of
most Lebanese bank assets, would tumble.

The worry isn’t only with local depositors
switching to hard currencies. Capital outflow
is another concern. “If we have confrontation
with Israel, it would be extremely difficult
for Lebanon to maintain the deposits of the
non-Lebanese, which constitute 30% of
total deposits,” says Iskander.

Couple that scenario with the already bad
economy and possibly hundreds of millions
of dollars in infrastructure damage
caused by Israeli air strikes, and it could
cripple the economy. For the cash-strapped
government, already drowning in nearly
$23 billion of debt, devaluation would create
further troubles.

While a weaker pound
would help relieve the domestic debt,
meeting overall debt payments would
become more cumbersome if Lebanon is
destabilized. “In the worst-case scenario,
there would be increased difficulties in collecting
revenues,” says Farooq.

But prophesying the worst might not be
well founded. The last ten years have witnessed
a spate of crises, from large-scale
Israeli bombardments of Lebanon’s infrastructure,
renegade militants in the North, to
a major turn of government. Through it all,
the sky never caved in, the pound remained stable, people
went to work, the kaaki
sellers continued to sell their kaak, and life went on pretty
much as normal.

Whether it is
coming or not now that the
Israelis have gone, conflict
is certainly nothing unusual to
the Lebanese; they have
lived with it through most of
the last three decades.

“We have gone through
other periods of uncertainty
over the last few years, and the central bank has been a master
at the game. They know
very well how to contain the pressure,”
says Nabil Chaya, head of the treasury at
Banque Audi’s capital markets
division.

Analysts point to
several key firewalls for the
bank. Foreign investors, who
own less than 10% of
Lebanese T-bills, cannot
directly speculate on the
pound, as they did in Southeast Asian countries during
the economic meltdown in
that region. This will help prevent
a “hot money” problem —
a sudden and massive sell-off
at the first signs of instability.

At the same time, the central
bank’s reserves were about $5
billion at the end of 1999 —
higher than ever since the end
of the civil war. If the bank
needed to step in again to
support the currency, it
should have enough reserves
to last for the short to medium
term.

Although it would
choke investment and slow down
the economy further,
interest rates could be hiked to
defend the pound, as they
were during times of uncertainty
in 1992, 1995, and
1997 (see graph).

As a last
line of defense, the bank has
gold reserves estimated to be
worth between $2 billion and
$3 billion.

“Even if things go very badly,
no catastrophe is expected for
the simple reason that even with continuing
pressure, the central bank has huge
reserves,” says Mohieddine Kronfol,
financial analyst in the capital markets
division of Middle East Capital Group.

But even if there is no conflict in the
wake of the Israeli withdrawal, Lebanon has
plenty of problems to lose sleep over. “My
biggest concern,” says Kronfol, “is
Lebanon getting its house in order.”

The
government is stuck with a budget deficit
that reached 51.8% at the end of the first
quarter of 2000. That’s up from 42.4% at the
end of 1999 and a far cry larger than the
37.3% that was targeted for the end of this
year — anxiety.

The economy regressed by between –1%
and –1.5% last year, according to the Economist
Intelligence Unit and HSBC.

Official GDP growth estimates for this
year are at 1.5% to 2%. But a recent report
by the Bank of Beirut & the Arab
Countries states: “This year looks harder
than last, given the prudence and the wait-and-see
attitude of economic agents.”

According to a study done by the General
Labor Confederation and the International
Labor Organization, an estimated 48% of
the Lebanese population is on the verge of
poverty and 68% live below the middle
class line — anxiety.

Serious administrative reform has yet to
get underway, the government is locked in
disputes with a number of foreign companies,
and there are serious doubts that this government’s
privatization plans will go
through — anxiety.

At the same time, parliamentary
elections are coming up this
summer, and many are forecasting a change
of government — more uncertainty.

“These are the issues that weigh heavily
on Lebanon,” says Kronfol. “If the issues
are not addressed, the government will find
itself, against its current intentions, having
to raise interest rates to keep the depositors
from converting and keep banks participating
in T-bill auctions. This
would exacerbate Lebanon’s
current economic problems.”

Without solutions, the economy
will continue to deteriorate,
which itself could put pressure
on the pound.

What’s more, opinions are
divided about what may come
now that the era of occupation
has ended. The pullout could
usher in an era of stability.

“The problems with the economy
are obvious,” says Paul
Salem, development analyst.
“The only thing that can get us
out is peace and investment.”

And many people feel that the
withdrawal could be the first step towards
a comprehensive peace settlement.

“This
will turn a new page,” says Georges
Ghorayeb, general manager of the tile
manufacturer Lecico. “We don’t know
what’s coming, but I think it’s a step
towards a solution. We’re optimistic. We
still believe that the past of Lebanon was
much more dangerous than the future.”

The advantages of a peace settlement are
obvious: millions of dollars in foreign
investment and foreign aid, a flood of
tourists, possible trade liberalization.

“Lebanon could count on a rejuvenation of
economic conditions and could hope to
grow at 5% to 6% [per year],” says
Iskander.

He adds that the country may see
as much as $2 billion in compensation for
damages sustained during the Israeli occupation,
from the European Union, Japan, and
especially the oil-rich Arab countries.

“As
well, the privatization process would result
in greater receipts due to increased investor
confidence, which would lead to a larger
reduction in the debt stock, and we would
see increased tax revenues,” says Farooq.

Without a settlement, the benefits are
less obvious. Many political problems, such as
the Palestinian issue, would
continue to fester.

But if
the situation remains
calm, there would likely
be a certain increase in tourism revenue, and it
might prompt some
investment, especially in
the South.

This, according
to Iskander, would mostly
come from the Shiite community
that made money in
Africa, estimated to have
about $5 billion in wealth.
He estimates that as much as $500 million could flow into the South.

“That kind of investment in an economy as
small as Lebanon’s would make a significant
change,” he says.

While the economic choke on Lebanon
may be loosened, the country won’t
breathe easily. “If someone is sick and has
a siesta, how will he wake up?” asks
Yachoui. “Lebanon will probably feel better
after the withdrawal of Israeli troops, but
it does not mean that the country will
recover its full economic health.”

One thing is certain — Lebanon’s problems
did not go away with the Israelis.

June 27, 2000 0 comments
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Best Sellers

Flat out flat

by Avo Tavoukdjian June 27, 2000
written by Avo Tavoukdjian

You couldn’t pick a worse time to be a
contractor. With the economy at a
standstill and the debt-ridden government
reducing public works expenditures,
construction projects are scarce. Contractors
are fighting over whatever business they can
find, even if that means bidding below cost.

But despite the doom and gloom, Butec, one
of the country’s oldest contracting firms, has
managed to keep its annual revenues around
$100 million for the last five years. “We’re
doing OK,” says Ziad Younes, Butec’s secretary
general, “but the market isn’t doing that
well.”

What is Butec’s antidote for the construction
slump? Specialization. Rather than
devoting its energy to building simple apartment
blocks or office buildings — the sort of
jobs that are the first to be hit when the economy
slows down — Butec concentrates on
technically complex projects that require specific
know-how. For these types of projects,
profits tend to be considerably higher.

For example, Butec is building a $16 million stadium
in Tripoli. Work started in June 1999, and
the project is slated for completion in time for
next fall’s Asia Cup. Butec is also constructing
a 45-kilometer irrigation system in the
southern Bekaa, worth around $14 million.

Firms capable of handling these projects are
few, meaning less competition and higher
profit margins. “We don’t get involved in
projects where everybody bids, sometimes
below the direct cost of construction,” says
Younes. “Other companies can get a project,
but if they can’t complete it, at worst they
declare bankruptcy.”

Technically difficult projects tend to be
larger, which is another advantage. “The
greater the volume of materials and equipment
you purchase, the better the prices
you are apt to receive,” says Kamal Meine,
an architect. Sometimes, discounts reduce
the price per unit to as low as 50% to 60%
of the original sticker price. Butec manufactures
some of the equipment and materials
it uses itself, reducing costs further.

Because of its specialized nature, Butec
competes with only a handful of other companies.
Consolidated Contractors Company
(CCC), for example, has annual revenues
exceeding $1.5 billion. Along with its
German partner Hochtief, CCC constructed the
new $500 million Beirut International
Airport. Contracting and Trading Company
(C.A.T.), which is projecting a turnover of
$130 million this year, is another big competitor
to Butec.

“With few in the market
capable of taking on such complex projects,
competition is reduced substantially,” says
Ziad Kassis, owner of Unity Group, the company
currently building the Zahrani bridge.

Butec has also been targeting projects outside
Lebanon in order to counter the slowdown
in the domestic market. By doing
business abroad, Butec is able to balance its activities,
keeping itself and its staff operating.

The company teamed up with a local
affiliate to build a $130 million cotton-spinning
plant in Syria. The project was so successful
that, almost immediately, work started
on a second $110 million cotton plant.
Younes expects these two factories to
process between 10% and 20% of the country’s
total cotton exports.

The company was
also involved in the building of a $16 million
sewage plant in Latakia and one in Tartous
for $16.6 million. Butec is building a gas
compression station in Iran, a power plant in
Basra, Iraq, the Dubai Tower in the UAE, and
a pipeline with three substations extending
from Iraq to Jeddah.

Other contracting companies
such as C.A.T., which is working in
the Gulf and Africa — are following a similar
strategy: targeting markets abroad in order to
ride out the recession at home.

Butec has also diversified its services. The
firm, for example, established Butec Property
Management (BPM), which provides building
maintenance, cleaning, and security at facilities
that were built by the parent company.

But before giving Butec a big pat on the back,
consider this: While the company’s strategy of
specialization has kept revenues steady during
the recession, its competitor C.A.T. has
managed to increase its turnover by over
200% in the last four years by focusing on foreign
markets. C.A.T.’s revenues jumped
from $25 million in 1996 to $80 million in
1999.

“Specialization may help Butec hang on
to its turnover,” says Souheil Abou Habib, general
manager of Nassim A. Habib, a local
contracting firm. “But such projects don’t
come along too often and limit growth.”

While specialization has kept Butec alive,
real growth may require the company to look
at new strategies and be a bit less fussy about
the projects it is willing to take on.

June 27, 2000 0 comments
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Best Sellers

From nuts ‘n’ bolts to gartersn’ lace

by Tania Avoukdjian June 27, 2000
written by Tania Avoukdjian

Seven years ago, Imad Kreidieh,
founder and majority shareholder of
Allied Distributors, tried to capitalize
on Lebanon’s building boom by selling construction
materials and electrical supplies.
Business was not brisk, though. The company
had barely got off the ground when it
dawned on Kreidieh that he was on a road to
nowhere. Rather than packing up and calling
it quits, he scanned the horizon for new
opportunities.

The building boom was in full
swing, so why not go into real estate? He
decided against it. The tourism business was
beginning to look promising as well, but he
didn’t open a hotel. Used cars? No. Fast
food? Guess again.

Kreidieh found his pot of gold in something
a bit more titillating: lingerie. It’s sexy and
always sought after. So in 1993, when Allied
Distributors came across a faltering company
selling French-made J&Gils men’s
underwear, it wasted no time in scooping it up.

Making the jump between selling something
heavy-duty to soft and sensuous may
seem a bit extreme. But it’s this flexibility
that has made Allied Distributors successful.
Soon after, it invested the limited profits
earned from construction into another
four lines of European-made women’s lingerie:
Alfa, Gizella, Scandale, and
Nicholetta, as well as Boli Blue swimwear.

In 1994, the company was distributing to
12 retailers. Two years later, that number
jumped to 165 and the company had double-digit
revenues of more than $300,000. But in
1997, sales started to sag. Increased competition
and the economic slowdown saw
revenues drop 50% to $150,000. They
remained at that level into 1998.

Rather than hanging up the panties and
going into yet another new line of business,
Allied downsized in an effort to reinvigorate
the company. Some employees were laid off
and the firm moved to a smaller office. At the
same time, the sales team was sent out to do
direct marketing with commission-based,
rather than fixed, salaries. The company
also turned on the marketing machine,
devoting 3% of revenues to advertising.

Those measures helped to push up sales to
$170,000 for 1999. For the first quarter of
this year, sales had already reached
$300,000. “If all goes as planned, we
should make it to $550,000 by the end of
2000,” says Kreidieh. That, while operating
on profit margins of
more than 30%.

But there are hurdles.

Competition is fierce.
“I can tell you who my
competitors are,” jokes
Kreidieh, “everyone
who sells underwear.”
That includes Hispaco,
the distributors of
Princessa and Telleno,
as well as Sindia, the lingerie branch of
Fattal, which sells such
big-name brands as Wonder Bra, Cacharel,
and Calvin Klein.

Kreidieh feels that his
prices, ranging between $25 and $50, are
some of the lowest in the business for mid-range
underwear.

Allied has aggressive plans to take on its
challengers. For the first time, the company is
planning a billboard campaign (see box).
Allied is moving into Internet sales as well,
investing nearly $5,000 in an e-commerce
website. “I can buy planes and cars through the
Net, why not boxer shorts?” asks Kreidieh.
“It’s a marketing operation. I’ll be advertising my
products plus getting e-mails. I am concerned about
the young generation, who spend practically
10% of their time on the Net.”

Maya
Waked, business manager at Sindia, disagrees:
“Internet sales are an option, but it’ll
be difficult for lingerie,” she says. Sindia
dedicates 10% of its budget to advertising,
mostly through magazines and billboards. In
its latest campaign, the company inserted
over 100,000 brochures in daily newspapers
and handed them out in movie theaters.

But Allied has another big plan to inflate
revenues. The company will be forming a
joint venture with Afra, one of its suppliers,
and opening its own manufacturing factory
in Tripoli by 2004. By manufacturing
locally, Allied will avoid paying customs
duties, which are at 40%, and be able to
lower prices. “The one who can control his
costs will win
,” says Kreidieh.

With the
new machinery, Allied will also be able to
add new lines of products to its collection,
such as babydolls, pajamas, and men’s lingerie,
and broaden its selection of colors
and designs. The company even hopes to
export to the United States and Japan.

What’s next on the list? With Allied Distributors,
you never know — and that’s what
makes the company tick. Flexibility is key
in an economy that is as unpredictable as
Lebanon’s. Who knows, before long we
might be able to walk into a supermarket
and buy edible underwear that tastes like
Kamar El-Din, courtesy of Allied.

June 27, 2000 0 comments
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Best Sellers

All charged up

by Avo Tavoukdjian June 27, 2000
written by Avo Tavoukdjian

Switching from the import of cheap
products to higher quality and now to
projects, Power Tech surged onto
the battery market. Its turnover jumped
from about $250,000 in 1994 to $4.9 million
last year. In the last two years, gross profits
increased fourfold from $212,000 to
$833,000. Not bad for a company that
started out as an importer of cheap batteries
from the Far East. How did this newcomer
to a market saturated with established players
pull it off?

“In the early 90s, the market demand was
for cheap batteries,” says Salim Jean, a
retailer and wholesaler of batteries, “and
that’s what all the importers were bringing
in.” Others in the market concur that at the
time the market was largely flooded with
low-quality products. At the outset, Power
Tech was no different than anyone else.
As an upstart, it may even have been worse off.

“We had no idea what we were doing,”
admits Nabil Haddad, Power Tech’s director
of business development. Neither did the
company have any focus. It sold everything
from mobile phones to lubricants,
gasoline, and whatever cheap batteries it
could get a hold of.

The impasse came when the increase in
prices following the Asian recovery wasn’t
mimicked on the Lebanese market, says
Haddad. While profit margins can be
reduced, selling below cost cannot be sustained
for long. Power Tech discovered
many players were importing batteries
with a smaller amount of lead or the recycled
variety in order to reduce costs. That also
reduced the longevity of batteries.

Power Tech was discouraged. But rather
than following the others, this time the
company decided to go its own way,
importing products of higher quality and
emphasizing that as a part of its sales strategy.

By the end of last year, Power Tech had
captured 6.2%, or $1.18 million, of the $19
million market for automotive batteries — not
bad considering it has more than 50 competitors.
But it wasn’t easy, because retailers
tend to stock up on what’s cheap and
easy to sell. “Importers usually bring whatever
the market demands, and the market
demand is mostly for the cheaper products,”
says Ayman Yazbeck, part owner of
M. Yazbeck Ets. So Power Tech set out to
change the demands of the market. It also
began offering incentives to retailers, such
as larger profit margins and extended credit
facilities, while wholesalers were offered
bonuses at the end of the year.

But would retailers really be interested in
stocking up on batteries that cost more?
Some believe they would be. “A more
expensive battery has a greater profit margin,”
says Tony Hanna, owner of Luca, a
distributor and retailer of automotive supplies.
He also believes that with few outlets
selling quality batteries, a retailer will face
less direct competition. “Nowadays, with
people more capable of buying new cars
because of credit facilities, demand for
good batteries is climbing, although the
greatest demand is still for cheaper ones,”
says Hanna.

Now 53%, or $2.6 million, of
Power Tech’s business is in distribution,
including sealed lead-acid batteries used as
backup power for computers, fire alarms,
and security systems. The company also
stocks specialized batteries.

The other side of Power Tech’s business
involves providing the power supplies and
backup batteries needed in high-tech projects.
Although there are dozens of
importers and hundreds of dealers, only a
handful have the know-how that is
required in this field. For example, when
Ogero put a tender up for bid for backup
power on a project, 36 companies applied.
Only Power Tech was able to submit a proposal
that offered the specific system
required. Here Power Tech dominates the
market. Last year turnover from this side of
business was about $800,000, up from
$100,000 in 1996. Power Tech has a 14%
market share in telecommunications backup
systems and 24% in industrial backup
systems for products supplied to turnkey
projects by the original equipment manufacturer
(OEM). Its share of the non-OEM
market is 68% and 72% for the two sectors,
respectively.

Most projects are equipped with power
supplies and backup batteries from the
manufacturer. Cellis, for example, has 350
relay sites, each equipped with backup batteries,
all initially supplied by Ericsson.
Libancell has 320 sites, all initially handled
by Motorola. Ogero, originally supplied
by Siemens, Alcatel, and Ericsson, has
some 440 relay stations. Each of these sites
requires an average of $10,000 worth of
backup batteries. There are also the
telecommunications systems used by the
Lebanese army and the Internal Security
Forces. Cellis alone has invested over $3.5
million in batteries for its infrastructure.
These local companies and government
organs now figure among Power Tech’s
clients.

“When we were looking for a supplier,
Power Tech offered a very good price
and provided us with quality materials,”
says Antonio El Rami, head of the maintenance
department for radio and transmission
equipment at France Telecom. There are still
power plants, refineries, petrochemical
plants, and cement factories to be considered.
It’s a fairly big market for a few players.

In supplying backup DC power for projects,
Power Tech has several advantages.
On top of the scarce competition, it is able
to compete with international giants on
price. While the products come from the
same manufacturers, Power Tech supplies
the client directly. For example, Ericsson
Lebanon buys from Ericsson Sweden,
which in turn buys from Emerson in the
United States. That’s two intermediaries
before it gets to a client like Cellis. “But they
give us a very favorable rate, especially
because of the large volumes,” says Nael
Salah, vice president and general manager
of Ericsson Middle East.

Also, the longest guarantee on the product
others give is two years, says Haddad,
while Power Tech offers a ten-year warranty.
According to Salah, Ericsson guarantees
are usually for one year with the possibility
of renewal. “I’ve already changed
$1.5 million to $2 million worth of OEM
batteries for them in the past few years,”
laughs Haddad. “If they’d bought from me,
I would have replaced the batteries under
warranty.”

He also says there’s an advantage
in terms of wasted time, claiming that
Power Tech’s small size enables it to react
quicker than large international companies.
“I’m here seven days a week, 24 hours a day,
and I have trained staff who can take care of
a problem on a Sunday,” says Haddad.

But not all of Power Tech’s business is
local. It distributes batteries in Nigeria,
Bahrain, and Qatar, and focuses on Nigeria,
Chad, Georgia, and Syria for projects. Last
year, $1 million of Power Tech’s turnover
came from distribution abroad and $1.5
million from projects abroad. That’s
almost half its total turnover. But can they
really compete away from home?

As far as
distribution is concerned, Bahrain and Qatar are small markets and local suppliers
can only import a limited volume. The volumes
purchased by Power Tech bring bigger
discounts, allowing it to sell to wholesalers
there for less than their purchase
price.

In Nigeria, which is a larger market,
Power Tech deals only in specialized batteries.

In projects, its competitive pricing
again comes into play. For example,
Orascom, a GSM Telecommunications
provider, put a tender up for bid in Chad for
backup power needed on a project. Power
Tech bid alongside giants like Siemens and
Ericsson. Their quotes were around $1 million.
Power Tech’s? $400,000.

After just six years in the market, Power
Tech has made a name for itself. It shows
what a few people can accomplish when
they’re all charged up.

June 27, 2000 0 comments
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Best Sellers

What a gas

by Avo Tavoukdjian June 27, 2000
written by Avo Tavoukdjian

Something’s in the air at Société
d’Oxygène et d’Acétylène du Liban
(SOAL). A subsidiary of France-based
Air Liquide (AL France), SOAL has
gone on the offensive since the early 1990s
with new management, a diversified product
line, and a complete overhaul of the company’s
operations. Its target? Regain the 90%
market share it had before three-quarters of
its business evaporated into thin air during the
war. While last year’s record sales of $5
million, 67% from the sale of gases, are a good
start, SOAL’s goal may be more elusive than
management first thought.

Since the end of the Lebanese civil war, the
company has been embroiled in its own
battle, with its foe, Chehab Industrial
Medical Gases (CIMG). “I will attack
SOAL from all directions,” says Emir
Mohammad Chehab, CIMG’s managing
director. While the war saw CIMG lay
claim to two-thirds of the market, SOAL’s
sales hit rock bottom in 1987 at $702,000.
That was down from $2.9 million just four
years earlier. Sales to industry had dropped
by 40% and to the health sector by 35%.

With SOAL’s re-emergence, the two competitors
are separated by little more than a
hydrogen atom: SOAL claims to hold 48%
of the market and CIMG 47%. Based on revenues,
SOAL is the market leader, although
CIMG’s prices are about 30% lower.

How did SOAL battle back? Air Liquide,
which holds a 51% share in the local outfit
and has revenues of over $7 billion, began
deploying new management in 1993.
Cumy Didier, a French technician, was
assigned as the new general manager.

Didier’s strategy was to diversify. He
moved the company into the sale and
installation of medical equipment, including
ventilators for operating rooms, respirators,
and anesthesia machines. That helped compensate
for the firm’s loss in the gas market.

At the same time, SOAL replaced most of
its cylinders in hospitals, starting at the
American University Hospital (AUH), with
containers that could hold 20 times more
oxygen. That gave the company an advantage
over competitors. Selling larger volumes
brought its prices down and, since more
oxygen could be consumed with a smaller
risk of interruption, SOAL increased its
number of client hospitals. By the end of
1993, sales had reached $3.8 million.

But SOAL still wasn’t sufficiently armed
for the long run. In 1995, CIMG began
employing the same technique and was
chipping away at the success of its nemesis.
SOAL’s sales dipped back down 7%, from
$4.65 million in 1995 to $4.35 million in
1996. It still had major internal problems —
a handicap that CIMG didn’t face. The
organization needed to be restructured to
place employees in their areas of expertise.

There were other problems: overpricing,
insufficient market data, and a lack of
correspondence with the parent company.

AL France intervened again in 1997,
assigning Joseph Haddad as SOAL’s commercial
director. His mission was to
increase sales and regain lost market share.
Haddad reorganized the sales force,
reduced costs, and replaced inexperienced
employees with qualified ones. Each division
was focused on separately to give better
quality control. The company was fully
computerized, market statistics were made
available to employees, and a direct line of
communication was recreated with the
parent company in France. And prices
were reduced by 10% to 15%.

The results?
Sales went up by about 10% from 1997 to
1999, which led to an increase in profits
from $83,000 to $133,333.

Nonetheless, management isn’t satisfied.
“Our goal is to get back our market share in
the near future,” says Haddad. CIMG, however,
is intent on blocking SOAL’s advance.
Backed by Air Products, the world’s second-
largest gas company, CIMG doesn’t
plan on relinquishing any more ground.

And it makes sure to keep abreast of the latest
developments at SOAL by having corporate
spies. “Just like they have insiders, so have
we,” says Chehab proudly.

For example,
upon discovering that SOAL was investing
in a new plant in the mid-1990s, CIMG followed
suit. A race to finish first ensued.
SOAL won that round, when its plant was
opened four months ahead of CIMG’s.

Competition between the two companies
has continued in the same vein, with each
hoping to muscle the other out. Last year,
SOAL bought Oxy-Leban, a distributor of
gas with a 10% market share that was having
financial problems. “Our sales would
have decreased by 20% if we hadn’t
acquired their customers,” says Haddad.

The acquisition of additional customers
helped SOAL increase sales when a
decrease had actually been projected.

While SOAL and CIMG claim market
shares that put them in a close race, their
assessment of the total market varies.
According to Haddad, the market for oxygen
gas has decreased by 22% in volume from
270,000 m³ per month in 1998 to 210,000 m³
per month in 1999. But SOAL’s sales in oxygen
have increased by 5% in dollar value since
1998, while volume increased by 15%.

Haddad claims to supply about
1.2 million m³ of the total oxygen
market of 2.5 million m³.

According to CIMG, the total
market size is 3 million m³,
making it difficult to determine
the share of each company.

In terms of installation and renovation
of gas equipment for hospitals,
SOAL claims to deal with 75% of hospitals in
Lebanon, while CIMG claims
to deal with 70% of new hospitals
and have a 50/50 share in old hospitals
with SOAL.

SOAL has already pulled off an impressive
comeback and is making plans for
future growth. This year, the company will
invest over $1.4 million to increase plant
capacity to supply the health and industrial
sectors, including $1 million that will be
spent on equipment.

SOAL will be aided by
Air Liquide, which provides the local outfit
with technical know-how. Of the total,
$800,000 is being invested in a second carbon
dioxide plant.

The company already
has four plants located on 10,000 m² in
Sin el Fil: for carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide,
acetylene, and one for oxygen and nitrogen.

The new plant is the result of SOAL’s new
six-year contract with Pepsi — business that
it snatched from CIMG. “You know the
bubbles in Pepsi, that’s us,” says Haddad.

Though its ambitions may not be altogether
realistic, SOAL still aims to regain its
original market share of 90%. “Within a
three-year period, this company will be
fully reorganized, healthy, and fully covering
the market,” predicts Haddad, who is
also looking to expand into neighboring
countries by 2003.

But CIMG has plans for
the market too, now slashing prices by a further
20%. That puts its prices about 50%
lower than SOAL’s.

Still, there might be a possible end to this
war of the gases. “The only way SOAL is
going to rule the market is if I sell CIMG to
them — and only at the right price,” says
Chehab. The question is whether there is any
seriousness behind the flippant remark and
whether SOAL would be interested.

June 27, 2000 0 comments
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Best Sellers

 Mission improbable

by Executive Contributor June 27, 2000
written by Executive Contributor

According to a recent report, poverty is on the rise in
Lebanon. What is the World Bank doing to address
that issue?

PRASAD: Poverty alleviation is the fundamental driving orientation
of the bank, not just in terms of specific projects but in terms of everything
we do — our policy advice, the sectoral focus. In Lebanon, the
poverty issue should be seen in two ways: one is what I would call the
structural, longer-term issue, and the other is in terms of economic difficulties
which have worsened employment prospects. With the structural
issue, there has been progress, with a lot of good work done by
the UNDP in raising awareness and then focusing on where poverty
is more concentrated. We have certainly collaborated in that type of
work. We have tried to focus on that issue in our dialogue, most recently
by organizing a series of discussions. The idea is not just to report,
but to increase awareness, to sharpen the focus on the nature of the issue,
and to reach consensus on how best to deal with it.

We have told the government that we would be happy to intervene
operationally. If the issue is money, we are quite happy to contribute
more. If the issue is deciding what the institutional channels should be
for intermediation to prove more successful, or what should be done
with that money, then we would be happy to work on defining the
answers. We’re trying to get clarity on that type of question.

So at this point, the projects are still at the planning stage?

PRASAD: Yes and no. We have ongoing projects as well as projects
that will be approved soon that deal with the poorer sections of society.
For example, we have an education project which has just gone to
the board — and public education is really for the poorer sections of society.
So that, and a vocational training project, should help to provide
improved access by rehabilitating and building schools, as well as
improving the quality of education.

Similarly, in the health sector, we have a project to finance accreditation
and the software part of reforming the healthcare system. In a system
that is not very efficient or equitable, it’s the poor who are deprived.
So if healthcare becomes more accessible in terms of cost, services,
and insurance coverage, then the less well-off sections of society will
find their needs are better answered.

We’re always conscious of the poverty dimension, and we try to make
that guide our strategic advice.

A number of World Bank projects are behind schedule and have a low
disbursement level. Why, and how is that being addressed?

PRASAD: We have ten ongoing projects in the portfolio. Of those ten,
five are classified by our worldwide standards as not satisfactory.
We’ve been discussing all the projects — those live especially — with the authorities.
Why don’t we think we can have the results that people expect? One short
indicator is to look at how they are disbursing. When you go into the
reasons behind that, you find substantive institutional difficulties.

What do you mean?

PRASAD: Lebanon is restructuring its institutions after a difficult
recent history. You have a civil service that is antiquated in structure.
I’m sure there are a lot of good people, but if you don’t have the system
and procedures that can help them, and people are afraid to make
decisions because the laws within which they work are old, then it’s
not a system which can work very well.

I think it’s also due to a lack of focus. When you have few capable
people in institutions, it’s difficult for them to devote the energy and
time to get something done. Part of the reason for setting up the
office is to help people focus.

There has been criticism that when you add the
bureaucracy of ministries and the CDR to that of the
World Bank, it slows things down. Is the bank trying to
streamline the process?

PRASAD: Yes, we’ve tried to over the past several years, and we continue
to do that. But this will not be a bank that can just write checks
without analysis and follow-up. It would be very disturbing to our shareholders
if projects did not permit transparency, accountability, competition,
economic efficiency, and so on.

The paperwork needed for a project has been reduced. It has
become much more standardized and is much easier to present
justification for a project. There are some basic questions that one has to
answer. And it’s not for us; the risks are for the countries because they
take out loans. If people think that is bureaucracy, I don’t think we’ll
ever get away from it, but we can try to ask the right questions more
quickly and do our operations even if we don’t get perfect answers.

How is the World Bank handling a government that is
notoriously slow-moving? One example is administrative
reform, an area the bank is working on.

PRASAD: The borrowing country is in the driver’s seat. That
means we should offer our best professional advice because of
our experience in other countries. On a subject like administrative
reform, given what they call in Lebanon “confessional distribution,”
which is so intimately connected with the fabric of society, decisions
need to be taken at high levels. It’s not for the bank to thrust that kind
of decision upon the country. We can say that if they don’t make the
public sector more efficient, it will make it more difficult for the country
to grow and for the private sector to invest productively or to get
the kind of social stability in the longer term which only steady
growth can provide.

Meanwhile, we do try to help establish systems and procedures so
that if and when the political decisions are made, it will be much easier
to make the changes. At the same time, when we work on sectors
through operations, we do try to address institutional issues.

Many analysts complain that the move towards privatization is painfully slow. Compared to World Bank experience, is that true?

It takes time to move from one way of thinking to another and to set up the institutional context in which privatization can lead to the desired benefits. Privatization badly done can be scandalous, can lead to a lot of money being siphoned off, and can represent a monopoly
that is not necessarily better than the previous state monopoly.
Properly done, privatization can lead to real benefits for society.
Previously, there were other priorities, such as rebuilding physical
infrastructure that had been damaged during the war.

So is it too long? I don’t think so, but I think everyone is waiting for            
actual transactions, for the results to be visible, and meanwhile people
are feeling the frustrations.

What would be the World Bank’s role in privatization?

PRASAD: First, it brings the experience of other countries. Second,
when requested, we try to analyze the specifics to indicate what
might be the cost. Third, we help financially, if requested, through loans,
including setting up regulatory systems or easing the costs of separation
of workers. We have told the authorities that we are prepared to
support some of the costs of the lay-offs involved, provided those separation
packages conform to international standards.

Is the concept of the World Bank and aid outdated, and
isn’t it more effective when private companies enter the
market and invest?

PRASAD: Let’s not become ideological. Even people who want to
throw away the state are not prepared to throw away the improvements
thanks to the state, for example the protection of the rights of workers
and decent conditions for work. The bank always tries to respond to
our member countries.

I’m glad we’ve had our critics — they’ve made us more conscious of
certain issues. We understand that we need to be more conscious of what
communities want or don’t want, and the need for greater participation,
or that governments may be non-transparent or may not be fully representative
of the people.

We are convinced that we have no role in financing the state in activities
that the private sector can do better. Over the last 15 years, the bank
has promoted the liberalization of trade and financial sector policies
and the opening up of government areas in the interests of greater welfare.
Not only have we advised, but also we have provided large sums
of money for the private sector to be able to compete so that, in the end,
the people could benefit.

Suppose you’re in a developing country and
you have to work your way through a maze of government regulations
that are old-fashioned? That’s where the bank comes in: it tries to reform
these societies, to offer advice or financial support. It’s difficult to be
competitive internationally in today’s world without skilled and educated
workers and reliable public sectors — health, transport, and so
on. Does the bank have a role or not? I think it still does and will have
in many parts of the world as long as these development challenges are
waiting to be met. Modernization is really what economic development
is about. It’s only as societies become more modern that they can also
have a large and efficient private sector.

June 27, 2000 0 comments
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