• Donate
  • Our Purpose
  • Contact Us
Executive Magazine
  • ISSUES
    • Current Issue
    • Past issues
  • BUSINESS
  • ECONOMICS & POLICY
  • OPINION
  • SPECIAL REPORTS
  • EXECUTIVE TALKS
  • MOVEMENTS
    • Change the image
    • Cannes lions
    • Transparency & accountability
    • ECONOMIC ROADMAP
    • Say No to Corruption
    • The Lebanon media development initiative
    • LPSN Policy Asks
    • Advocating the preservation of deposits
  • JOIN US
    • Join our movement
    • Attend our events
    • Receive updates
    • Connect with us
  • DONATE
For your information

Crash Landing

by Robert Tuttle May 26, 2000
written by Robert Tuttle

It was one more of those grand schemes of Rafik Hariri’s era, designed to resurrect Lebanon’s glory days. Like Solidere and the construction of an Arab highway to Damascus, a new Beirut International Airport (BIA), was going to welcome visitors to the commercial and cultural capital of the Middle East. Today, Solidere is struggling, plans for an Arab highway are on hold, and the BIA has turned into a major headache. The new $400-million facility, touted to be one of the world’s most modern airports, is slated for completion this month. But that’s two years behind schedule, and already the facility has three strikes against it.

Strike one. Hoctief-Consolidated Contractors Company, the German-Lebanese joint-venture hired in 1994 to build the new airport, is locked in an arbitration dispute with the Council of Development and Reconstruction at the International Court of Arbitration in Paris. The conflict centers on $200 million in cost overruns that the company says arose from delays in construction and alterations made in the design of the facility. The arbitration case has been ongoing for two years in a relatively low-key manner. That is, until last month, when the government was accused of intervening in the process by preventing Joseph Takla, Lebanon’s representative, from attending a hearing. Takla eventually resigned and a replacement has yet to be appointed. Meanwhile, a number of local lawyers have suggested that the case be settled in Beirut, an option Hoctief rejects. “It was to take place in Paris during the initial arbitration. Both sides agreed,” said a spokesman for Hoctief.

Strike two. Mohammed Abdul Mohsen Al-Khorafi & Sons, the company building the $24 million airport car park, claims to have suffered a 50% reduction in revenues because the police have allowed illegal parking along the sidewalk in front of the airport. Khorafi won the 15-year build operate and transfer contract in 1997.

Phase one was completed in 1999 with 800 parking spaces. The second phase will increase the number of spaces to 2350 and is scheduled for completion by next year. Complaints to the Lebanese authorities haven’t yielded any results, says Khorafi. Fayssal Mikdashi, director general of civil aviation at the ministry of transport, claims that during peak times the police can do little to stop the infractions because there are too many cars. There have also been complaints that the rates are too high. “If rates were a bit lower, nobody would park outside,” he says. Users are charged LL4,500 for the first hour and LL6,000 for two hours.

Strike three. Just who will run a new 6000 m² duty-free zone when it opens this month, is still in question. Phoenicia Aer Rianta Company (PAC), a Lebanese-Irish joint venture, won a 15-year concession to operate the facility in 1996 on a $38 million bid, $20 million of which has already been paid. Last year, prime minister Salim Hoss, referring to a decision by the government’s committee for consultation and litigation, suddenly declared that the contract wasn’t legal. He said that a concession could be granted for four years only. The statement prompted protests from PAC, which still claims that it was not formally notified of the decision. Since then Najib Mikati, minister of transport, and Hoss have said that the government was reviewing the contract. But its status remains vague. Mikdashi says the contract is still valid, “unless we hear otherwise.”

But the government, if it wants to honor the deal, will have to make legal what was not. That will require approval from parliament. The ministry of transport prepared a draft law that would do just that, but it’s not clear whether it will be presented to parliament.

What do these problems have in common, other than the airport? Each involves a foreign company that has invested substantial amounts of money and is in conflict with the government. “It would do good to explain why all these projects have been going through this, and clarify the situation,” says Nassib Ghobril, an analyst at Lebanon Invest. “The reasons have not been clear. You can see why it would make foreign companies second-guess doing business with the government.” In other words, three strikes and the only one who might be out is foreign investors.

May 26, 2000 0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Executive Living

Party on board

by Natacha Tohme May 15, 2000
written by Natacha Tohme

Summer is sea season, so what could be better than a
cool Mediterranean cruise? A little pricey perhaps? It
doesn’t have to be. There’s no need for a boat of your
own when the Capitan San Marco, a 35m-long American
Schooner, docked in Dbaye, is available for rent.

The sleek sailboat is owned by Fred and Jacques Fremal,
Belgian twins with an appetite for adventure who sailed to
Lebanon four years ago on a mission to create their own fleet.

They envisioned a commercial enterprise that entailed
building a fleet of Phoenician boats, partly to revive this
bygone maritime civilization (see box). Today the project is
underway and keeps the seafaring twins anchored to
Lebanon. While here, they’ve made a business out of chartering
the Capitan San Marco for parties and weekend
cruises to Cyprus.

Naval architects, the brothers spent ten years building the
Capitan San Marco, which was launched in 1991. “There are
no more than 25 ships like this one in the world,” says Fred
Fremal. The Capitan San Marco is indeed a nautical feat and
continues to attract attention in every port it visits. In fact,
the Fremals have an impressive portfolio of articles written
about their boat. The clippings, in about five different languages,
are from magazines and newspapers from different
corners of the world.

The Capitan San Marco can be chartered for daytime or
sunset cruises, for a maximum of 40 people. Cruises are
priced at $600 for four hours and $900 for six hours from Monday
to Thursday or $900 for four hours and $1,200 for six hours from
Friday to Sunday.

These flat rates do not include entertainment or meals. The
boat has a sound system that can be used at no extra charge, and
customers can bring their own food or pay $10 per person for
a simple meal. For customers wanting organized catering and
entertainment, costs vary. But the Fremals encourage customers
to deal with event managers that regularly work with
them, as they are familiar with what works best on the boat. Why
take the risk of hiring catering companies whose waiters might
get seasick? And certain oily foods, such as pistachios, are not
allowed on the boat, as they ruin the wooden floor when
stamped on.

Weekend cruises to Cyprus are usually available for a maximum
of 12 passengers at $495 per person, including meals.
However, weekend cruises have been suspended while the Fremals
concentrate on building Phoenician boat

Invest in Lebanon’s development by donating to a worthy cause

Chipping in

Discussing Lebanon’s ‘backward state’ makes for
interesting conversation. And while pointing fingers
at the government is not altogether unfounded,
it is, well, typically Lebanese. It’s also ineffective. The
country would gain much more if civil society participated
in its development.

To be fair, a lot of people invest time and money in a number
of social and humanitarian endeavors. Lebanon has many
active non-governmental organizations (NGOs). “More
than 60% of schools and hospitals belong to philanthropic
institutions,” says Abdul Hafiz Elladki, general director of
the Dr. Mohammed Khaled Social Foundations. “And
100% of the orphanages and clinics for the handicapped
belong to NGOs.”

Traditionally NGOs are meant to cover a gap of 20% to
25% of what the government provides and what the people
need. “But the government provides about 5% to 10% of the
need, and we must cover the remaining 90%,” says Elladki. He adds that because of the economic crisis “the number
of people needing our help increased.”

International donors, such as UNDP and USAID, give a
lot of money to NGOs. However, civil society should play
a role in development. Caritas, which is 90% funded by its
European counterparts,
has seen its
funding cut now that
the war is over. Caritas
Europe is encouraging
the organization
to involve the
local community.

What role does the
business community
play? Since the country’s
tax system doesn’t
give incentives to
encourage people to
donate, they must be
morally driven. “70%
of our income is from
donations from the
private sector,” says
Elladki. The Dr.
Mohammed Khaled
Social Foundations
cares for 550 orphans,
has an illiteracy and technical training
program and a medical rehabilitation center caring for the handicapped.
Its annual operational budget is about $5 million.

Many people are skeptical about donating money to NGOs.
How can one be sure that donations aren’t misappropriated?
NGOs that are transparent will benefit. Many reputable ones
are doing good work at either local or national levels.

On the road less traveled

Jawad Adra is an entrepreneur who left Lebanon in 1972
to pursue a career in Saudi Arabia as an executive for a
major contracting firm. After a 22-year absence, he relocated
to Lebanon and established a research firm, Information
International, with Zeina Akar. The two were eventually married.

What Adra didn’t anticipate was the identity crisis for
“having not lived through the war”. The experience proved
a turning point in his life.

“We say we are proud to be Lebanese,” says Adra. “If we
all like this country, why is so much going wrong with it?” Adra
saw three alternatives: join the system, become isolated from
society or emigrate. “I believe we have a bad system,” says
Adra. “It needs to be overhauled, totally restructured.”

Finding solutions to Lebanon’s problems would require
taking a different course, albeit a less traveled one. Adra
believes that advancement is achievable through “a slow,
determined and consistent change in society and in the values
of people**.** It’s a very long road.” Together they established
INMA Social and Cultural Development Association, which
administers community development projects in Koura.

In its first 18 months, the projects were funded entirely by
Adra’s research firm. The first was a public library in Kefraya
, Adra’s hometown. Other projects include a computer training
center and a health clinic. INMA has also planted 5,000
trees in Koura. “We have discovered that if you do several projects
in clusters of villages you can have an impact,” says Adra.

They eventually decided to solicit donors. But, to remain
independent and politically unaffiliated, they applied to
international agencies. USAID gave a $46,000 grant for a
medical laboratory and three computers. The Japanese
embassy gave $30,000 for a dental clinic. The Canadian
embassy gave two $30,000 grants for agro-industry projects.
Adra’s research firm still subsidizes INMA for about $2,000
a month. The couple balks at the suggestion that they
should stop putting money into the NGO. “If you are spending
$2,000 to help communities, why not?” says Zeina.

Magic carpets

Caucasian and Persian treasures will cost you a pretty penny

Hand-woven carpets are likened to works of art. Collectors
will pay large sums of money to own valuable
antique pieces. None are more desired than
Persian and Caucasian carpets.

Persian carpets are identified by their floral designs. But
there are countless types, such as Isfahan, Kashan and
Nain, which are named after the villages where they were
made. They are made of silk, wool or a combination of the
two and are based on either cotton or silk. The tribal rugs
have busy geometrical designs and are made of wool. The
finer the knot, the greater the value. “Whenever it’s a fine
knot, you get a very clear design on the back side,” says Heydar
Maktabi of Hassan Maktabi & Sons. He retrieves a finely
knotted 2m x 1.5m carpet made of wool and based on silk.
It is priced at $10,000.

What determines the value? “For old carpets it’s the rarity
of the piece,” says Maktabi. He reveals a prized antique
carpet, a Kirman Lavar that is over 200 years old and in perfect
condition. The 2m x 3m carpet, which bears two
stamps, has an interesting history. An Iranian governor commissioned
the piece, which has a twin located in the Iranian
museum. Maktabi is asking $250,000.

While antique Persian carpets are valuable, the 20-year US
embargo on Iran crippled demand. Prices are low because
of the devaluation of the Iranian currency. “It’s a very
good time for people to buy carpets,” says Maktabi. Many
can be found for under $2,000.

Caucasian carpets, identified by their bold geometrical
designs, are more in fashion than their Persian counterparts.
This is partly because the designs suit a wide variety of
decors. Today Caucasian carpets are made of synthetic
wool and chemical dyes, mechanically woven and are
priced as low as $200. Since hand-weaving techniques
have all but disappeared, old Caucasian carpets command
high prices. No two carpets are identical. Additionally, old
carpets are made from organic dyes and handspun wool.

Nalbandian Tapis d’Orient has an inventory of about
9,000 old Caucasian carpets. “All the old pieces were collected
by my father and grandfather 35 to 40 years ago,” says
Serge Nalbandian, one of the fifth-generation team now at
the helm of the business. “They used to buy the carpets for $5
and $10 a piece.” Today they are worth $5,000 to $10,000.
There are four main types named after the region where they
are made: Kazak, Karabajh, Chirvan, and Kuba. How is a carpet’s
value determined? “By its age, the rarity of the design,
and the condition of the carpet,” says Nalbandian. He displays
a yellow 140cm x 120cm carpet that is over 100 years old and
priced at $7,000. “For a worthy piece, the average price for an old Caucasian is about $3,000 to $3,500,” he says.

The Nalbandian family reintroduced the tradition to
Armenia two years ago to
attract buyers that cannot
afford such prices and to
revive the hand-weaving
technique. Production is
small, at about 40 to 50
pieces a month. Most are
marketed in the US, but
some are available here.
He displays one that is 2m
x 1m and sells for $1,500.
Its antique counterpart
sells for about $7,000.

While Persian carpets
are valued by the fineness
of the weave, Caucasian
carpets aren’t. “You should
look at their beauty,” says
Nalbandian. His family
heirloom is an antique
worth about $250,000.
Called a ‘Star Kazak’, only
13 exist in the world. “The rarity of ours is that it has all the colors
used in Caucasian carpets in one piece.”

So French

Buying antique tapestries is like
buying paintings by great artists.
Collectors pay up to $250,000 for masterpieces. The tapestry business flourished in France
between the 17th and early 20th century. What determines
a treasure? According to Hratch Nalbandian, it’s a combination
of things. “If the painter
and weaver are known and the
subject is unique, then it’s an
interesting tapestry.”

Tapestries were based on oil
paintings. Aubussun was one
area in France that was famous for
its tapestries. Other notable mills
were located in Gobelins, Felletin,
and Beauvais. Nalbandian’s shop,
Loutfik Nalbandian & Fils, has an
impressive selection of antique
tapestries. He unfolds an 18th
century piece, based on a painting
by Boucher and retrieves a book
detailing its history. The artist’s
series ‘Italian Village Scenes’ was
reproduced into tapestries a number
of times. “But no two pieces are
the same,” says Nalbandian. His
piece was based on a painting,
‘The Gypsy Fortune-teller’. Thirteen tapestries were produced based
on this painting, five of which are
known to be in museums. “And one is in my shop,” says Nalbandian. Once the piece is fully
repaired, his asking price will be about $140,000.

With tapestries, there’s no graspable range for prices:
19th century tapestries cost
$8,500 to $60,000, 18th century
ones go for $10,000 to
$150,000, while those dating
from the 17th century run at
$70,000 to $250,000. The art is
still alive and well, but many
mills relocated to the Far East,
because of the high production
costs in France. Nalbandian
advises first-time buyers
against purchasing at auctions,
because good deals are
usually for damaged tapestries.
Restoration work isn’t
cheap and can cost more than
the purchased price. Nalbandian
has a small workshop
where three women sit
painstakingly mending tapestries.
“You have to appreciate
the art to recreate it again.”

May 15, 2000 0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
New companies

start me up

by Natacha Tohme May 15, 2000
written by Natacha Tohme

This month EXECUTIVE recognizes Lebanon’s newest entrepreneurs
by introducing a section dedicated to start-up companies.

Despite a slump in the economy, there are still
those who pursue the dream of starting a business. The three
start-ups profiled have ventured into competitive fields,
trade, advertising and travel, and faced similar challenges.
All three were established on personal savings. In Lebanon,
it’s almost impossible for start-ups to obtain credit, even well-established
small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs)
have difficulties. A study by the Lebanese Center for Policy
Studies revealed that 81% of credit goes to 9% of borrowers.

But there is some encouraging news. The European
Investment Bank recently granted a loan of about 30 million
euros ($29 million) for SMEs and start-ups. The loan will be managed
by the central bank and distributed by nine commercial
banks. Applicants can request loans of 50,000 euros ($48,000)
to 2 million euros ($1.92 million). They will last for eight years,
with a two-year grace period, at interest rates that have not yet
been determined. To qualify, applicants must present a project
to one of nine commercial banks and have it approved by the
Council for Development and Reconstruction.

A new office has also been established to guarantee loans to
SMEs within the agricultural, industrial or technology sectors,
up to 75% of their value, to about $67,000.

Standing among giants

Armed with conviction and $70,000, Elie
Maalouf and Adel Dreik established
Key Brands in late 1997, distributing such
mid-range toiletries as Club Sport, Baylis &
Harding and Vuarnet. The new company
refused to divulge revenue figures, but last year
sales grew by 60%, according to Maalouf.

Key Brands is stepping into an import
market that is dominated by big companies
such as Unilever, Obegi and Fattal. Its strategy
is to target price-driven consumers. The
recent 20% hike in customs on cosmetics and
toiletries to 55%, as well as the recession, has
made high-end products unaffordable to
many. This has helped Key Brands’ line of
Club Sport spray deodorants, which retails
at under LL4,000 for a 150ml bottle. The
same size bottle of Malizia, the number-one
seller last year with 14.3% market share,
costs about LL6,400.

“You have a transfer from the high-end to the
low-end,” says Raymond Abou Adal, president
of the Abou Adal Group, distributors of
Colgate-Palmolive. Even Obegi, one of the
largest distributors, did away with its high-end
cosmetic lines.

Having successfully penetrated the market
in just one year, Maalouf and Dreik went
searching for new product lines. This
required additional funds so the partners
formed a joint venture with Meteco, another
new company. Key Brands added to its portfolio
Babaria, Bypsa, Looney Tunes toiletries
and fragrances for kids, as well as a line of
mass-market perfumes called Prestige.

Today, the company’s database comprises
over 150 items. Bypsa, a line of mass-market
toiletries, is Key Brands’ best seller. A 750ml
bottle of Bypsa shampoo retails for about
LL5,000. The same size bottle of Pantene, the
number one seller with 21.4% market share
last year, sells for about LL8,500.

After just one year, Fransabank granted the
company overdraft facilities of $75,000. “We
have not used one-third of it, that’s how
focused we are on our finances,” says Dreik.
“We keep reinvesting, we watch our costs
closely and we follow up on our payments.”

Last year the partners agreed to reinvest all
profits made in the first three years. “No profits
are being taken out. We are focusing on
increasing the size of the company, our sales
and our market share,” says Dreik. This year
Key Brands is targeting a new market segment, small mini-markets and grocery stores.
Unlike big supermarkets, smaller shops don’t
demand big discounts. “This market is huge,”
says Maalouf.

The partners also plan to invest $400,000 in
a factory to package in-house lines of personal
care products. Key Brands secured a medium-term
loan to finance the plant, which should
be up and running within a few months. By producing locally, it will be able to avoid the
steep tariff on imports.

In a short period of time, Key Brands has experienced good growth. “It’s a competitive
market, but if you work well you
can succeed,” says Dreik.

Standing out in a crowd

Sarah Hampartzoumian and Mandy
Chidiac have worked for years in the
travel business. The market, says
Hampartzoumian, “is saturated with agencies
offering every type of travel service, but
not specializing in one.” At the same time,
the economic crisis has cut into outgoing
tours, while the stalled peace process is
hurting incoming tours. “At the moment
business isn’t good,” says Fouad Kurban,
president of the association of travel and
tourist agents in Lebanon.

Despite the bleak conditions, the two
young women sensed an opportunity. Last
July, they invested $15,000 in Indigo Red, a
company focusing on specialized tourism.
The company runs honeymoon packages,
adventure trips and motivational programs
aimed at organizations.

Increasingly, people are opting for affordable
package tours. But this is a complicated
and costly affair that requires high volume.
For this reason, smaller agencies often sell
packages for larger agencies, receiving a
commission of about 5%. By specializing in
specific types of travel, Indigo Red is able to
create its own packages. This increases
profit margins to about 10%.

Incentive tours might prove to be Indigo
Red’s forte. Local firms already offer these
to employees as team-building events and
they have so far proved popular. Indigo Red
hopes to attract international companies to
Lebanon in this way, but that will require substantial
funds and a more stable political
environment. The company wouldn’t disclose
sales figures, but its strategy seems
to be paying off. As an official from the
ministry of tourism says, “the future is for the
agents that specialize.”

Good things come in small packages

Samar Aouad and Maya Metni don’t just
look trendy, they think that way too.
The two young women met while
employed at a local advertising agency and,
frustrated by the general lack of cooperation
and administrative scrutiny, casually joked
about opening a small advertising agency of
their own. In May of last year, they did just
that. On a budget of only $10,000, they
established Pomme S.

But times are tough and Jean-Claude
Boulos, president of the international advertising
association’s Lebanon chapter says:
“They’re coming in at a bad moment.”
Competition is fierce. There are about 100 ad
agencies in Lebanon and countless more sell
advertising space, while the recession has
prompted many companies to reduce their
advertising budgets.

But, says Boulos, the newcomers can succeed
if they show “creativity and seriousness,”
two qualities that Aouad and Metni
say they have. The partners had already
earned a reputation as freelancers for a number
of top ad agencies. Thanks to their experience,
Aouad and Metni were able to draw an
impressive list of clients when they started,
including their biggest client, Credit
Bancaire. Freelance work continues to generate
about 20% of revenues. Through
word-of-mouth, the reputation of Pomme S
has been growing. “We have around 12 regular
clients, plus about five every month that
we do one project for,”
says Metni.

Lower overheads
enable Pomme S to
charge competitive
rates. For example, a
corporate image,
which includes
business cards, letterhead,
second
page, envelopes and compliment cards, costs $600 to $1,000.
Larger agencies charge up to $5,000. But
being new in the business is tough. “We have
to make about $4,000 to $5,000 a month to be
on the safe side,” says Aouad. Both admit that,
before opening Pomme S, life was easier.

Nonetheless, the two say that opening
Pomme S has been professionally and personally
gratifying. “We are happy,” says
Metni. “Having your own company is better
than having a new car.”

May 15, 2000 0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Tech Knowledge

First Lebanon

by Executive Contributor May 15, 2000
written by Executive Contributor

Technically, the only true innovation
comes in a CD shaped as a credit card.
The e-bizCard, compatible with any CD-
ROM, is the latest offering of the French-
based Ebiz Production. However, were the
unusual shape its only selling point, it
would have been passed off as nothing
more than the latest gimmick in data storage.

But Ebiz is using this new gizmo to
attract Lebanese businesses. Production of
the e-bizCards will begin sometime next
fall. Stored in each card will be a listing of
the top 360 businesses in Lebanon. They
will be made available to Lebanon’s
major companies and foreign trade mis-
sions. “It’s one of a three-pronged pro-
motional campaign dubbed First
Lebanon, which aims to bring Lebanese
businesses to the fore in the global mar-
ket,” says Yann Rotil of Ebiz Production.

For a flat fee of $480, a company will get
its logo, contact address and a short com-
pany profile printed on 15,000 e-
bizCards, 5,000 business handbooks
(which will also be distributed free to
CEOs and consultants) and on the
Internet at www.firstlebanon.net for 17
months. Thirty-six commercial sectors,
ranging from airlines to banks to travel
agencies, are represented.

This is not the only compendium of
Lebanese businesses. Sites such as
www.lebanon.com and www.lebanonlinks.com are well established and have
perfectly adequate links. But the novelty
does come with the trilateral approach to
First Lebanon and with Rotil’s insistence
that, thanks to Internet protocols, “any
search on an international engine such as
Yahoo! or Excite with the words ‘busi-
ness in Lebanon’ will yield firstlebanon in
the top ten results.”

So far, 145 companies have signed up
including Demco Steel Industries and
First National Bank. If First Lebanon
proves successful, Ebiz plans to set up sim-
ilar projects in the UAE, Saudi Arabia
and Jordan with the goal of creating a
firstmiddleeast.com. As for the e-
bizCards, they have simply been thrown in
to make the project appear state-of-the-art.

Say it with music

It’s the cyber equivalent of the singing
telegram. Electronic Services has
launched its newest online service,
Songees at www.songees.com. For $1, a
member can send a personalized song
greeting to a fixed or mobile phone anywhere
in the world. Songees, the double e
is simply an attempt to get around registered
domain names, is the brainchild of Adel
Reda, a local entrepreneur who believes
that his service fills a special niche. It is for
all those “Lebanese who want a fun way to
keep in touch with their relatives and
friends abroad,” he says. “It’s the latest
thing after e-greeting cards.” Intracom, a
local ISP that recently sold its database and
dial-up network to Cyberia, operates the site.

Songees’ drawback: you have to use your
credit card to buy $20 worth of credits,
which then have to be used within a year.

Data Management, a local ISP, has
helped another Internet start-up become
equally musical, Karim Saikali’s CD shop,
E-com Lebanon at www.e-comlebanon.com.
But it’s not the first online store to offer
CDs to the average Lebanese surfer. Souk
Loubnan at www.soukloubnan.com and
Soukna at www.soukna.com have each been doing that for the last
four months. What makes
Saikali’s idea novel is that it
adopts an independent database,
turning his site into a
mixture of Amazon and eBay.
Shoppers can create their own
e-shop in Saikali’s virtual mall
to sell or trade their old CDs at
no extra cost. “We hope to
earn from advertising banners,”
says Saikali who, though unwilling to disclose the initial investment,
admits that the break-even point may be
several months away. E-comlebanon.com
recorded a respectable
2,800 visitors in its first month,
but only eight CDs have actually
been sold so far.

According to the slogan on the
company’s welcome page, “customers
can place their orders
from anywhere in the world and
have the CDs delivered inside
Lebanon.” This is no doubt an
effort to encourage expatriate Lebanese
who, having received several birthday
songees from the folks back home, feel
duty-bound to return the favor with the
latest in Western jingles.

Sold to the lady with IBM

“Do I hear more bids?” Internet users
probably won’t hear those words
while surfing the net. But if it is an auction
they are looking for, they might want to
check out www.mazadi.com. E-Commerce,
a seven-month-old Lebanese
startup specializing in online business ventures,
is promoting the site as the Arab
region’s first online auction arena. It is
modeled after the much larger US-based eBay.com
auction site. Visitors can bid on merchandise
and, for at least the next three
months, can put their own goods up for
auction free of charge.

Johnny El-Hashim, manager of the site
believes www.mazadi.com has great
potential, and he is looking for up to
$500,000 in venture capital funding from
investors who feel that Lebanon has a
bright online future.

May 15, 2000 0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Tech Knowledge

To kill a mocking virus

by Carl Gebeily May 15, 2000
written by Carl Gebeily

If you use Microsoft Word, Excel or
Outlook, then you’d better keep on
your toes: You are vulnerable to one of
the most common pests on the Internet
today. The electronic bete noire is the
macro virus, a little program that, unlike
general computer bugs, hides inside a
word processor document or spreadsheet
and can do a world of damage to beginners
and sophisticated computer buffs alike.

Globally, more than one in ten of all computers
are expected to encounter a virus in any
given month. This startling figure is the projected
forecast by the International
Computer Security Association (ICSA) and
represents a 3% increase over last year. In the
ICSA study that polled IT professionals
from 300 large US corporations with some
750,000 PCs, the 8% monthly rate of virus
alerts that were reported in 1999 is expected
to grow to 11% this year (see graph).

In Lebanon, in the absence of official surveys,
figures for the number and frequency of
viral attacks are at best approximate. Some
estimates, loosely based around the number
of panicked customers who phone their dealers
for help, put the toll as high as 5% a
month, while others insist on the more salubrious
rate of 1% of all PCs. The average
brings the Lebanese rate of infection in line
with US figures given that not all virus
encounters actually develop into full-blown
infections. “But virus infections are definitely
on the rise,” says Mihran Boudromian,
head of Expervision’s software and sales
department. “A lot has to do with the fact that
more viruses are being created.” Georges Hajj, senior consultant
for Compudata, concurs. “It’s a
Catch-22 situation: the more antivirus
programs there are, the
more new viruses there are that
can beat them and the more
there is a need to update existing
anti-viruses.” Between
them, Compudata and
Expervision have a client
base of some 400 customers
on maintenance
accounts
ranging from corporate
to private
PC owners.

In the ICSA
study, by far the
biggest problem was
deemed to be the rise of
macro viruses. The survey
found that incidents of macro-virus infections
had doubled on average every four
months in 1999 and that some 64% of all
reported viruses were macro-induced, compared
to 46% a year earlier. Boot-sector
viruses, which attack the program that boots up the
computer, and file-infector viruses each
accounted for about 10% in both years.

“This is one aspect of technology where
I don’t mind lagging behind the West,”
says Boudromian cheekily. “Although
we’re receiving an increasing number of
macro-attacks, the main e-invaders are still
boot and file viruses.” Though potentially as
fiendish and destructive as their macro
counterparts, these viruses are unambiguous
programs with a clearly-defined icon when
running in Windows.

Somewhat paradoxically, the main reason
for this variance with the West is the higher
occurrence of software piracy. “Most of
our viruses have come from diskettes or
pirated CDs, rather than off the Internet like
Chernobyl for example,” he says,
referring to last year’s virus attack that
caused mayhem across Asia and the
Middle East as 600,000 PCs crashed. “But
we’re catching up,” adds Boudromian.
“Within a year, our computers should be as
macro-ridden with disease as in the West.”

A macro is a small chunk of code that can automate tasks like formatting. But macros
can also execute malicious actions and
spread as viruses, infecting a computer in
the way a retrovirus, such as HIV, infects the
human body. The macro virus starts running
when your word processor, for instance,
opens an infected file. Once it is running, the
virus copies itself into the word processor,
again like a retrovirus that is intent on
invading the DNA of a human cell. Once
infected, the macro virus runs every time
you open an existing document with your
word processor or create a new one. When
it runs, the virus makes a copy of itself into
the file, infecting the new file.

“The root to the macro problem,” says
Hajj, “is that Word makes it easy to send a
complex document complete with fonts,
pictures and even embedded spreadsheets.”
It is therefore very convenient to email
a Word file from one person to another,
which, when coupled with the growing
popularity of email, produces a related
boom in email-borne viruses.

Most common computer viruses of 1999

An analysis of the most common computer viruses of 1999 shows that although
the threat of new self-propagating viruses is growing, older viruses are still very
common in Lebanon.

One boot sector virus, Ethan, is nearly six years old but still appears in the top five
(see table). The list was compiled based on customer calls for help to Compudata
and Expervision.

The three self-propagating viruses on the list were Melissa, Laroux and Happy99,
which forward themselves by hijacking a computer’s email program. This means
that instead of taking months to spread into the wild, these viruses have the potential
to attack globally within days.

However, Georges Hajj, senior consultant for Compudata, believes that old
viruses still pose a major threat: “Some viruses become so common, they will never
become extinct; they will always lurk on a floppy disk in someone’s drawer.”

According to Hajj, the key to long-lived viruses is being virtually invisible. “Viruses
which jump up and down with very destructive payloads draw attention to themselves
and effectively kill themselves off.”

What computer bugs do once inside your PC depends on the fiendishness of their
creators. Some, like Happy99, merely display annoying messages or graphics
on your screen. “Happy99 does nothing, it just spreads, although it still causes damage
by using up system resources.”

But others, such as the Chernobyl virus, are highly damaging, capable of corrupting
the motherboard and thereby hoodwinking the computer into believing it has no
hard disk. This permanently cripples the machine and deletes all stored data, necessitating
the purchase of a new motherboard and BIOS chip that can cost anywhere
between $90 and $120.

While having a hard disk wiped by
a virus may seem the computer
equivalent of Armageddon, many
companies and individuals are fortunately
in the habit of keeping
back-up copies of information and
sensitive files.

Boudromian is similarly concerned by
the rise in infections. “Macro viruses will be
driving the increased virus infections in
Lebanon,” he predicts. “We have entered an
age of pandemic contaminations at speeds of
light, when a single virus has the capacity to
bring a million PCs to a grinding halt.” In this
explosion of macro viruses that promises to
be a growing threat to our information
economy, it is almost with nostalgia that he
looks back at 1995, when “absolutely the
only serious threat of infection came from a
faulty floppy disk or a pirated CD.”

Macro viruses didn’t exist prior to the
release of Microsoft Word 95. But with Word 95
and later versions, Microsoft added the ability
to store macros in files along with text. As
a result, one of the telltale signs of having an
infected copy is that the word processor will
only save Word template files, since this is the
only way that the macro can propagate.

Since then, newer releases of Microsoft
Word and Excel have had the ability to
store macros in ordinary document files.
Being able to store macros inside a word
processor is a powerful feature. For example,
you can have a macro that computes the
terms of an installment loan, or that automatically
asks a few questions and then
draws a graph. Many businesses have created whole applications that run inside
Microsoft Word and Excel. “Microsoft has
called this modification an enhancement,”
says Hajj, “but it significantly compounds
the macro virus problem.” Boudromian
agrees: “By themselves macros aren’t
inherently dangerous. What is dangerous,
however, is the ability of Word and Excel to
have macros that automatically execute when a file is opened.” And there lies the
breeding swamp for macro viruses.

The computer industry has come to
accept viruses as a fact of life, with programmers
striving against ever more virulent
strains. Commercial anti-virus software
protects against many of the most
common macro viruses. Functioning as
antibodies, the latest anti-virus software such as Norton AntiVirus 2000 and
McAfee VirusScan, which between them
grab over 80% of the local market, recognize
some 14,000 known strains of viruses
that can worm their way into systems.
Playing Russian roulette may have its aficionados,
but clearly the best solution
remains to shield your computer with the latest
in anti-virus software.

However, it’s worth bearing in mind that
even though anti-virus software will fight the
most common Word macro viruses, it’s not a panacea. Anti-virus vendors estimate that
as many as 200 to 300 new viruses are created
every month simply because it’s easy for
a computer programmer to take an existing
Word macro virus, make a few changes and
create a new virus that won’t be detected.

An important factor in the flurry of virus
incidents, almost as important as the
attacks themselves, is the laxity in updating
anti-virus software regularly, scanning
incoming email and attachments, improper
installation and too little attention to anti-virus policies for remote users. “We do our best to
inform and encourage our customers to be
vigilant at all times,” says Hajj, “but unfortunately
there’s still a great deal of lethargy
when it comes to adopting safe controls.”

In the American ICSA survey, about 60%
of those respondents who had been infected
correctly diagnosed the disaster from the
start. Put another way, 40% of computer
users took some time to realize they had
caught a bug.

“Of course the surest way to avoid being
infected by macro viruses is to disable
them,” says Imad Tiba who teaches a computer
course at Business, Engineering
Studies and Technology. “You can do this
under Microsoft Word 97 and later versions
including Word 2000 by changing your
macro security setting.” Of the three settings
that are available, the low setting lets Word
run any macro that it finds. “Don’t use this setting,”
insists Tiba. “Instead, specify high
security, which disables all macros unless they
are signed by a so-called trusted source.”
The program lets you specify which signatures
that it should trust; the rest are automatically
ignored. There is also a medium
security setting. In this mode, a warning
pops up each time a file that contains macros
is opened, giving the user the choice to have
them enabled or disabled. Most users are
recommended to leave their security setting
on high, since, as Tiba advises, “there is no
way of telling beforehand if a macro is going
to be safe or not.” Boudromian puts it more
jocularly: “it’s the electronic equivalent of not
handing your credit card and car keys to a
complete stranger.”

And while being infected by an electronic
bug is anything but funny, to some virus programmers,
creating such widespread panic
with a few lines of computer commands is all
a joke. The boot-virus W97M_AUTOEXEC,
for instance, carries a riddle. When recipients
of the virus open an infected document, they
are presented with a question and given three
chances to answer. Possible results include the
messages, “You are wise, please choose this
again later,” “Congratulations,” and “Stop it!
You are so incurable, lose three chances!
Now, God will punish you …”

In this case, ‘divine punishment’ consists,
quite predictably, of deleting all the files on
the hard drive.

Spring cleaning your computer

If your 6-gigabyte hard drive is already half full with unneeded files, program remnants,
cached Web files and other useless garbage, now may be the time to clean
out the cobwebs.

Think of a PC-user as a litter-lout leaving cigarette butts, candy wrappers,
Almaza bottles and used Kleenex tissues all over the pristine landscape of your hard
drive. A typical Windows program installation scatters support files in several directories,
so you can’t simply lay waste to a single folder to get rid of all the litter.

Well-written Windows software registers how to uninstall itself either in the
add/remove programs utility in the control panel or in the folder it builds in the programs
menu. Using an uninstaller generally gets rid of most traces of a program,
but it can leave things like shared support files, saved games or data behind.

You can clear a little more space by dumping your temporary Internet files, but not
really enough to make a big difference. You can also go on a search-and-destroy mission through
every folder on the drive using Windows Explorer, but don’t kill anything you’re not
absolutely sure about because you could wind up with a very expensive paperweight.

Windows 98 and Windows 2000 also have a utility that automatically dumps useless
files. Go to the Programs Menu, then Accessories, then System Utilities and
pick Disk Cleanup.

Then again, there’s always the more radical, scorched-earth approach: If your PC
is so totally bogged down by all the stuff you’ve downloaded, your quickest course
of action is to nuke the drive. You just reformat and load the essentials, Office 2000
and your favorite wallpaper, and you’re ready to start cluttering things up again.

May 15, 2000 0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Tech Knowledge

Banking on software

by Carl Gebeily May 15, 2000
written by Carl Gebeily

It’s been anything but plain sailing. Joe
Faddoul, the 56-year-old chairman of
BML Istisharat, has been pursuing a
personal quest since he got into the computer
business almost 30 years ago. His
goal is to simplify the handling of complex
computing systems, the huge software programs
that companies and banks use to
manage everything from finances to customer
service. “We’re selling a service, so
our job is to be reliable and extremely cost-
efficient,” says Faddoul.

This could be rhetoric, but the fact is that
he has successfully marketed the company’s
products and lifted revenues from almost
zero in 1976 to $6 million last year (see
graph). The firm’s banking software,
Integrated Computerized Banking System
(ICBS), is mentioned in the annals of IBM
in New York as one of the top ten success
stories in software, and according to 1998
figures from the London-based International
Banking System, it ranks fourth out of 34 in
terms of sites where it has been installed:
some 40 banks in over 350 sites. With about
20 cents of operating profit extracted from
every $1 of revenue, Istisharat appears to
have something of a golden touch.

These respectable payoffs, rising to $1.2
million in 1999, have attracted such local
heavyweights as Societe Generale, Societe
Nationale d’ Assurance (SNA) and the
Lebanese Swiss Bank who are among the
company’s main shareholders. “Within its
class, BML Istisharat has the largest revenue base and the most advanced products,”
says Maroun Badr, assistant manager of
development at Societe Generale.

How do they do it? Analysts say
Istisharat’s $100,000 to $600,000 software
packages help organizations become more
customer-friendly on two fronts. This 28-
year-old company offers what both foreign
and local rivals cannot offer: a combination of
built-in customer profiling based on a successful
track record and personal attention
to the quirks of the local market. Using
Istisharat’s software, companies can make
their organizations more self-service oriented.
Credit Libanais replaced the French
software, Delta, with the Istisharat system
because, in the words of deputy general
manager Antoine Raad, “Istisharat has a
solid foundation for building the relationship
between businesses and the customer.”

Sammy Hashem of Libano-Suisse
agrees. The insurance company bought
Istisharat’s URIS package (Life Insurance
and Reinsurance), for about $100,000.

Today, Faddoul’s software firm derives
60% of its revenues from export sales to the
US and Western Europe, with a sprinkling to
the Middle East. Clients include Citibank,
Assurances Generales de France and
Banques Populaires (BPRNP). In the Middle
East and Lebanon, Banque Nationale de
Paris International (BNPI), Societe Generale
and Credit Bancaire all use Istisharat’s software
packages. But most of their bank clients
are foreign, not Lebanese. “This is a paradox,”
admits Faddoul. “Lebanese prefer to buy
blue-eyed software.”

Competition is particularly stiff from foreign
software manufacturers like Kindle
and Midas-Kapiti International (MKI) who
compete for banking accounts. They hold
the top three notches in sales figures of the International Banking Systems (MKI is
second and third with two banking packages,
Midas and Equation).

The Arab Bank has completely transformed
its operations over the past eight
years to install an English/Arabic version of
MKI’s Equation system. MKI’s software
was chosen because “the innovative use of
MKI IT has revolutionized our banking
business in the areas of cost savings and
improved customer service,” says Tarek
Abdulrezak, deputy manager of Arab
Bank’s IT department.

Kindle and MKI are subsidiaries of
Misys, a UK publicly-owned company
quoted on the London Stock Exchange.
The Misys Banking and Securities
Division (BSD) is the world’s largest independent
provider of software products to the
sector, supplying applications and services
to around 1,600 customers in 100 countries, 360 odd customers with Kindle’s
Bankmaster system, and the remaining
1240 on either of the MKI packages. In
1999, Misys generated revenues of $920
million and an operating profit of $213
million. BSD accounts for 60% of revenue
and the Insurance Division for 9%.

Given Istisharat’s turnover of $6 million,
Faddoul is hardly a big-company guy in
global terms. With his core of just over
100 key accounts around the world,
Faddoul is refining the art of nurturing customers.
Citibank has been a loyal Istisharat
client since 1988, which has accounted for
$2 million in sales in 11 years.

As a result of his own experience in market
research, Faddoul is quick to advise
potential clients to conduct thorough surveys
of corporate IT before any costly purchase.
He has also made local prices on
Istisharat software low compared to
Europe, at averages of $100,000 and
$350,000 for insurance and banking
licenses respectively, compared to
$250,000 and $500,000.

It may seem somewhat unexpected to
learn that Istisharat entered the electronic
arena almost by accident and that, like most
success stories, the company has humble,
back-office roots. Istisharat opened its doors
in 1972, on a radically different footing.
Istisharat, Arabic for consulting, was set up by
four partners, including Faddoul, with a
business plan aimed primarily at market
research and management consultancy. The
subsequent replotting of corporate strategy
came with the start of the war, when demand
for management consultancy and research
dwindled to almost nothing overnight. “War
forced us to transform into a computer services
company,” says Faddoul. By 1988,
Istisharat had graduated into a principal software
developer with a breakthrough on the
lucrative Citibank account.

But as IT matured, businesses were forced
to broaden their plans. Istisharat acquired
the agency for IBM in 1990 and an extra three
letters to its company logo. “Lebanon
Business Machines was our and IBM’s first
choice,” says Faddoul. “But that was already
registered by a company that sells typewriters.
So we became Business Machines of
Lebanon, BML Istisharat, a name we kept
even when we sold our IBM agency.”

It was with the same corporate eye on an
evolving electronic landscape that they
dropped IBM in 1995 in order to focus
solely on software development. “In the
1980s there were only four or five players
in the hardware business, now there are
hundreds and competition is that much
more cutthroat,” says Faddoul. “It became
clear that we were losing time selling computer
boxes when the real action had shifted
to software.”

In retrospect, Faddoul believes the move
out of hardware was a sound decision.
Turnover has grown eight-fold in the last
four years, and profit margins are as much
as ten points higher in the service industry.
Istisharat has 100 employees who are split
into three software departments and working
on four packages: banking (ICBS), insurance
(LIRIS and CIRIS) and Integrated
Manufacturing and Distribution (IMAD).
Their packages handle such functions as
management information systems and, in the case of IMAD, follow-up
on the manufacturing process.

Here’s how it works: Software is created,
developed under Oracle or AS/400 platforms
and installed on UNIX or NT, which
is then assembled into application-style
packages. These tailor-made programs are
then used either within companies or
between them, allowing companies to create
customized relationships with each of
their distributors or dealers and clients, giving
them up-to-date catalogs, order forms,
pricing, marketing materials, billing and
inventory. “We’ve developed our system in
a very parametric way,” says Faddoul
about their IMAD package. “You can use it
for textile or beer or cement.”

And while some 50 companies use the
IMAD system, bringing in a turnover in 1999
of about $600,000, IMAD represents only
10% of Istisharat’s business. The true
money-makers are in banking and insurance,
which, respectively, account for 68% and
22% of sales. Both licensing fees and installation
costs are higher for the financial sector,
with license fees ranging from $400,000 to
$600,000 ($350,000 to $400,000 in
Lebanon) for banks, and $250,000 ($100,000
in Lebanon) for insurance companies.

Typically, a bank implementation of the
software should take between 12 to 18 months, 12 months for an insurance company
and six to nine months for an average-sized
manufacturing or distribution business.
However, time frames can and do vary widely.
Six months represents roughly two
months in man-days, and these are billed at
$350 a day per project leader and $150 to $200
a day for a standard programmer, increasing
the net revenue for a typical project to
$30,000. Faddoul’s methods are sometimes
considered harsh but effective. He is also fair.

As the brainchild of a profit-sharing
scheme, 25% of company profits are redistributed
to members of the software teams.

An unexpected ally in Istisharat’s business
has come in the form of a general merging of
company descriptions and of nations.
Deregulation in the US and Europe has
brought a convergence of banking and insurance,
a move that is being copied in
Lebanon. “URIS is our latest child. In essence, it’s a bank insurance package which
we have already implemented at Fransabank
and Societe Generale.” Faddoul hopes that
URIS will become the next big earner as
more banks go down the insurance route.

Internationally, the European Union’s
(EU’s) move towards a single policy on tax
and other fiscal matters is also making life
easier. “The EU is actually helping our
industry to streamline and standardize our
products,” he says. At $600,000 per license
fee, the insurance package for the US is 2.4
times European fees. This is partly due to the
upgraded version that is being sold in the US
market, and partly to the differences in
legal reporting in each state.

If Istisharat’s contest with the foreign giant
Misys is something of a struggle between
David and Goliath, on the home front, at
least, the odds are stacked in Istisharat’s
favor. The company stands alone as a
Lebanese provider of banking and insurance
solutions in a market that has become saturated
with software developers all focusing on
similar back-office packages. “There are too
many players in a small field,” says Khalil
Taller, head of Logos, which provides general
bookkeeping and payroll packages.
“Recession is hitting hard with cutbacks in the
IT industry.” As much as 65% of Logos’
turnover now comes from export sales to
the Middle East, compared to 25% in 1998.

This is a strategy that’s been adopted by
Software Design, whose flagship Dolphin
business application package is sold in 15
countries in the face of a dwindling local
market. “In Lebanon’s software ecosystem,
there are essentially only seven or eight true
outfits in terms of western-style professionalism
and pursuit of high tech,” says Michel
Nseir, general manager of Software Design.
And in an emerging industry already marked
by fast consolidation, the company with staying
power may be Istisharat. “[Faddoul] has
done a great job in operations,” says Nseir. “I’d
say BML ranks about top on that list.”

Many executives complain that immature
technology and industry fragmentation
are keeping them from installing the latest
technology. That’s why Istisharat may have
an edge. Says Sammy Hashem of Libano-
Suisse, “In emerging software markets, the
people who win are the people who are
broad.” And Istisharat has proved that it is considerably broader than most of the 250 or
so local software developers. As the service
shakeout intensifies, smaller software companies
with tiny revenue streams are
already falling by the wayside. Skygazer
Technologies, which has been operating for
the past six years as IT consultants in both
the private and public sectors, recently disclosed
its decision to move its business
to Canada. “The bottom line is that
there’s no trust in this country,” says Abbas
Dagher, owner of Skygazer. “Poor business
ethics compound a market that is already stifled
by recession and government control.”

But companies like Istisharat should be
able to survive, not least because with a
healthy roll of major international clients,
they have chosen to specialize in a field that
pays as much attention to street credibility
as it does to software expertise.

Istisharat’s work should easily translate
into a dot-com environment. Faddoul doesn’t
believe that the rise in e-commerce can
adversely affect his traditional bricks-and-
mortar clientele. “Even if banking is transformed
into e-banking, the banking function
itself will remain,” he says. “There will
always be a need for banks, and therefore we
will always have a role to play.” Nor does
Faddoul feel the frustrations of being in a
backwater of the global economy, frustrations
that have driven countless other
Lebanese to take their talents and innovations
to Silicon Valley. “In today’s Internet
environment, it really doesn’t matter where
your head office is located. We can troubleshoot
a bug in Indianapolis, say, from the
comfort of our offices in Riad al Solh.”

Faddoul’s challenge now? To keep abreast
of e-banking and e-insurance with particular
regard to moves that would see software
developers operate their own portals on the
net. Oracle’s chairman Larry Ellison recently
funded a new Internet startup, NetLedger,
which aims to convince small companies that
it can do their bookkeeping over the Web. For
$4.95 a month, companies can hire
NetLedger to store and handle all of their
invoices, bills and general ledger records.

And while Istisharat’s eye is on a different
breed of customer, Faddoul still needs to woo
the industry with ideas that will fend off
rivals. If he can do that, then the rising e-tide
will assure smooth sailing for Istisharat.

May 15, 2000 0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Money Matters

Turbulence

by Peter willems May 15, 2000
written by Peter willems

Springtime has been a turbulent season for the US
stock markets. Tech-heavy Nasdaq, which has been
climbing at a torrid rate and reached its high in early
March, fell dramatically by mid-April. The sell-off was triggered
by a combination of things, including the US district
court ruling that Microsoft violated anti-trust laws and
investors becoming nervous about the high valuations of tech
stocks, especially the high fliers that have yet to post profits.

Surprisingly, during Nasdaq’s fall money started to
shift from the New Economy to the Old Economy, which
had been ignored for some time. The Dow Jones Industrial
Average (DJIA) gained over 12% at the same time Nasdaq
was heading south. But then came news that fueled questions
about the bull market coming to an end, or merely a correction
that would eventually allow the bull to keep on
charging. The consumer price index, backed by soaring energy
prices, jumped 0.7% in March. The core rate, excluding
volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.4%, the
biggest gain in five years, showing that price increases have
filtered into many sectors. When those figures were
released on April 14, markets had one of the worst days in
memory: Nasdaq plummeted 9.7% (down 355.49), while the
DJIA dropped 5.7% (down 617.78).

Even though the markets bounced back (Nasdaq and
DJIA up 14.2% and 4.42% in two days respectively), there
are worries that the
US economy could
overheat and push up
the inflation rate. In
the fourth quarter of
1999, the GDP
growth rate soared
7.3%, above acceptable
levels. And
economists expect
the rate for the first
quarter of this year to
come out at about
6% due to heavy production and consumption. The labor
market is tight. Unemployment is still hovering around 4.1%,
but with an increase in jobs averaging 272,000 a month in
the first three months of 2000, many expect unemployment to fall below 4% later this year. Hourly wages for production
workers grew the fastest in two years, up 4.1% in the
first quarter, which if wage increases continue, might put further
pressure on prices.

The Federal Reserve Board, led by chairman Alan
Greenspan, has launched preemptive strikes to head off an
inflation threat, raising the federal funds rate by 125 basis
points since June last year, a gradual process by increasing
short-term interest rates by a quarter point each time. But
with indicators still red-hot, there’s fear that Greenspan will
be aggressive at the next Federal Open Market Committee
meeting on May 16, raising interest rates by 50 basis points.
“That’s where the debate takes place,” says Larry Wachtel,
market analyst at Prudential Securities. “We were expecting
another 25 basis point rise in May, but after recent indicators,
it could be 50 instead. That will be debated all the way
up to May 16.”

Analysts have different views on where the markets are
heading. For tech stocks, Wachtel urges investors to avoid the overvalued
high fliers but get into the buying mode of quality tech
stocks that are established and profit makers. “It’s important
to blend your portfolio with the New and the Old Economy,”
he says, “but I favor New Economy blue-chip stocks. They
represent the future.” According to Tom Yan Leuven, market
analyst at JP Morgan, the investment bank was expecting
“the broad market to be weak this year.” It targeted the
S&P 500 to drop to 1300, below the current level after the
violent weeks around 1400. He suggests trimming down on
tech stocks and moving money into more defensive stocks,
such as consumer staples and energy stocks. He argues that
as interest rates continue to rise, these sectors will be less hit
than some others and that the values are attractive.

Merrill Lynch is digging in for defense. According to the
latest report from Richard Bernstein, Merrill Lynch’s chief
quantitative strategist, volatility in the US markets will not
subside soon, especially in the Nasdaq market with tech
stocks still overvalued. Merrill Lynch has moved from its
traditional diversification model of 60% in equities, 30% in
bonds and 10% in cash to 40%, 30% and 30%. Bernstein
suggests investing less in tech stocks and focusing more on
basic industries, energy, REITs and utilities, stressing their
strong fundamentals.

It is difficult to guess what are the best strategies for the
future. But you can bet on more turbulence ahead.

May 15, 2000 0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Money Matters

Global quantitative strategy update

by David Bowers May 10, 2000
written by David Bowers

Investment Highlights:
■ Among G7 countries, the correlation between currency performance
and Technology exposure is 95%. In a larger
universe of countries, it is 73%.

A weaker US dollar has been part of our global strategy. We
thought the dollar’s strength in 1997 and 1998 was
attributable to a global flight to quality. Investors moved
into higher quality US assets (such as T-Bonds) as the global profits
cycle decelerated, and we thought that process would reverse
and put pressure on the dollar when the global profit cycle reaccelerated.
The global profits cycle has indeed reaccelerated, but the
dollar has remained strong.

Is the strength in the dollar reflecting a renewed flight to quality,
or is it reflecting non-US investors’ enthusiasm for US Technology
stocks? It appears to be the latter.

■ Capital account vs current account

For some time, we have argued that the rally in the US dollar from
1995 to 1999 was based on the capital account rather than the current
account (monetary and capital flows rather than trade flows).
The trough in the US dollar in 1995 coincided roughly with the peak
of the global profits cycle. Markets become increasingly “Darwinistic”
when profits cycles decelerate, and investors gravitate toward
higher quality investments.

Without sounding terribly ethnocentric, US T-Bonds are perhaps
the highest quality investment in the world, and the increased
desire to purchase them as the global profits cycle decelerated
helped the dollar to appreciate. More recently, we expected the dollar
to depreciate versus other currencies because the global profits
cycle was accelerating again. Typically, investors shift from safer,
higher quality assets toward riskier, more cyclical assets when
profits cycles accelerate.

We expected investors to shift from T-Bonds to riskier assets
around the world, thus putting pressure on the dollar. However, the
US dollar has strengthened rather than weakened. In this short
report, we try to investigate why it has done so despite fundamentals
that might suggest otherwise. Clearly, we are not currency
experts. We leave formal currency forecasting to our Economics
and Currency teams. However, this study attempts to explain the
role the Technology bubble may be having on currencies. We examine
no other factors.

■ The Technology bubble is sucking capital away from non-Tech
industries as well as from non-Tech countries

■ If one is bearish on US Technology, then should one also be
bearish on the US dollar?

■ The black hole gets bigger

We include both the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar within
our Inflation Composite Index (ICI). Because of the composition
of those countries’ GDPs, traditionally these two currencies have been
viewed as proxies for the strength in commodity markets. The two
currencies have looked more like opposites so far this year, as the
Canadian dollar has held its value versus the US dollar, while the Australian
dollar has lost about 10% versus its US counterpart.

Many have asked us what might be causing the significant difference
between the performance of the two currencies so far this year.
One client suggested that it might be related to the percent of each
country’s stock market capitalization that was in Technology stocks.
We have felt strongly that the dollar’s strength was not attributable
to a “flight to quality.” Then, upon hearing this suggestion, it suddenly
occurred to us that the Technology bubble was not only sucking capital
away from every other industry in the United States, but it was
also sucking capital away from other countries.

Our research supports the contention that flows into US Technology
stocks are influencing currencies. The currencies of countries in
which Technology comprises a greater proportion of their stock markets
are outperforming those with little Technology exposure. Our
research shows the correlation so far this year between currency performance
versus the US dollar in the first quarter among G7 countries
(plus Australia because of its dollar’s inclusion in our ICI) and
the percentage of their stock markets’ market capitalizations that are
comprised of Technology and Telecom stocks. Our studies clearly
show that the currencies of countries with greater Technology and
Telecom exposure have outperformed those with smaller exposures.
The R-squared of the regression fit among these points is 0.91
(correlation equals approximately 0.95). Further research examined
the same analysis for a broader sample of countries (24 countries versus
eight in the previous example), and the results were very similar.
Although the summary statistics are not quite as strong (R-square
of 0.54 with a correlation of about 0.73), it is clear that the relationship
still exists. In fact, only three of the twenty-four currencies
included in the study outperformed the US dollar so far this year, and
two of the three have significantly larger exposure to the Technology sector than does the US (Korea and Taiwan). The only other currency
to outperform the US in our sample was the Mexican peso,
and Mexico’s recent fortunes have been linked to those of the US.

■ Little relationship to domestic fundamentals

We find it interesting that the Australian dollar and South
African rand have performed so poorly versus the US dollar this
year because domestic fundamentals are so strong. As we have pointed
out in other reports, and as the following chart highlights, the
strongest estimate revisions in any region of the world are presently
in the Resource Markets, which we define as Australia, Canada
and South Africa. Thus, it appears that Technology weighting
rather than fundamentals is influencing currency performance. Technology
and Telecom stocks comprise only about 11% of South
Africa’s market capitalization and only about 23% of Australia’s.
Both weights are quite small compared to the US’s 50%.

■ Self-correcting mechanism may be global

We have mentioned in previous reports the self-correcting
mechanism that we feel is underway in the United States as
investors overcapitalize the Technology sector and undercapitalize
the real economy. The overcapitalization of Technology might ruin
the profit prospects for the individual companies in those industries,
but the undercapitalization of the real economy is improving the
profit potential of real economy, old-fashioned companies. We have
mentioned that Merrill Lynch Fundamental Equity Research’s
earnings forecasts show the earnings growth rates of many real economy
sectors catching up or even surpassing earnings growth in the
Technology sector. This analysis suggests that the self-correcting
mechanism might take place on a global scale. For example, we
might be overcapitalizing US Technology and Telecom, but might
be also undercapitalizing Australian Resource companies.

■ As goes tech, so goes the US dollar?

If one is bearish on Technology, should one be bearish on the US
dollar? If it deflates rapidly, then the US dollar might stay strong.
Technology and Telecom stocks dominate many markets, and a sudden
fall in those stocks might foster an all-out “flight to quality” to
the T-Bond similar to 1998’s. However, if the deflation of the bubble
is orderly and gradual, then the US dollar might indeed decline
as investors begin to appreciate the improving fundamentals of out-
of-favor sectors, industries, and countries.

US investment strategy

■ The combination of a ‘one-theme’ market with very poor
breadth, an economy that is growing well in excess of what is sustainable
over the medium term, and a Central Bank in tightening
mode is not ideal for equities. It seems prudent to keep an above-
average weighting in cash.

■ However, the momentum of corporate earnings remains
robust against a background of vigorous domestic demand
growth. Moreover, we have been impressed by the way that the
broad markets have performed well in the face of a correction
in the NASDAQ.

■ Market breadth continues to deteriorate, and we have yet to
identify the catalyst that may cause the market to broaden. Historically,
falling bond yields have tended to be associated with
improving breadth.

■ However, it still strikes us as premature to rotate into bonds and
bond-sensitive sectors. The rally in the US long bond is clearly
supply distorted, corporate bond yields have failed to perform,
and global indicators remain consistent with stronger, not
weaker, activity. The sharp rally in financials over the past month
looks more like a bounce from oversold levels than any fundamental
shift.

■ Given our neutral stance on the Technology sector, our sector
strategy continues to favor the Energy and Basic Industries sectors,
rather than Consumer Defensives and Financials.

What’s changed?

Despite two 25bp tightenings by the Fed, the US economy continues
to gather momentum, with the consensus of US economists
now forecasting almost 4.5% growth in 2000, well in excess of the
Fed’s desired target range. Over the quarter the long bond yield fell
some 50bp, but more on supply concerns than on any sense that the
Fed had tightened sufficiently to slow the economy. This may have
exaggerated the flattening in the yield curve. By contrast, corporate
bond yields (Baa) ended the quarter stubbornly high at 8.3%.
According to VB/EIS, prospective earnings for the S&P Composite
are up 15% on a year ago and rising. Against a background of 5%+
domestic-demand growth, the earnings outlook for the S&P universe
looks well supported at least for this year. For the first two months
of the quarter, sector rotation was brutally in favor of technology.
However, the past month has seen an aggressive shift not only into
basic industries and resource stocks, but also into financials.

What to Look Out For

The combination of a ‘one-theme’ market with very poor
breadth, an economy that is growing well in excess of what is sustainable
over the medium term, and a Central Bank in tightening
mode is not one for the faint-hearted. Add to that a global economy
that is experiencing the strongest industrial upswing since
1994 and the strongest prospective GDP growth for over a decade
(3.2%) and you have an environment where it seems prudent
to maintain an above-average weighting in cash. The phrase
“don’t fight the Fed” – much quoted when interest rates were
being cut in 1998’s Asia crisis – is notable by its absence now.
One of our major concerns is the deterioration in market breadth that
is apparent on both the NYSE and also on the NASDAQ. Over the past
twelve months, around half of the constituents of the S&P Composite are
more than 25% off their highs. One of the key issues is to identify the
catalyst that will trigger a broadening of the market and the next
major sector rotation. Indeed, one fundamental issue is whether a broadening
of the market can occur without some further correction in tech.
Over the past 15 years a broadening of the US equity market has tended
to occur against a backdrop of falling bond yields and declining
prospective nominal GDP growth. There is little to suggest at present
that the Fed’s tightening to date has prompted any downgrading of
growth expectations.

The Fed will continue to tighten until growth expectations start to
be revised lower. At that point bonds and the more defensive sectors
may start to perform again. However, given the strength of the global
economy and the momentum of US domestic demand, the process
could take a while. For that reason we maintain our bias towards
the economic sensitives, including the “old economy” basic industries.

In the event of a further sharp correction on NASDAQ, the interest-rate outlook could improve significantly as fears of a Fed tightening
wane. Currently the futures market is discounting a 60bp rise
in 3-month Euros to just under 7% in six months’ time, in which case
the knee-jerk reaction of investors might be to downgrade both
growth and interest-rate expectations on the back of potential negative
wealth effects and rush to the defensives. But this could end up
only being a transitional phase. The strength of US domestic demand
coupled with a broadening economic recovery in Europe and Japan
should not be underestimated. Even if the global growth rate peaks
this summer, we expect growth to remain firm going into 2001. For
many fund managers who have adopted a neutral weight in technology,
the crux of the matter is how best to hedge the portfolio. The
longer the Fed’s tightening is perceived as insufficient to return
growth to the 3.25% to 3.75% corridor, the more cyclical value looks
attractive and a move into bond-sensitives premature. However,
there is a well-established inverse correlation between technology and
consumer staples, and a sudden correction in tech might be more likely
to prompt a defensive shift. Indeed, such a correction could be interpreted
as bond-positive to the benefit of the financials in so far as a
tech sell-off might make the Fed’s monetary stance look more convincing.
It is too soon to count growth out yet. We think the recent rally
in financials reflects the correction of an oversold condition rather than
the start of a bull run.

May 10, 2000 0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Money Matters

A more aggressive move towards a free trade area in the Arab region is needed

by Executive Contributor May 10, 2000
written by Executive Contributor

Regional trade makes up a relatively
small fraction of total
Arab trade, both in absolute
terms and in comparison to other regions
in the world. The low level of trade within
the Arab world can be attributed to policy-
induced barriers to trade as well as the
lack of product complementarity within
the region.

In 1998, total exports from the Arab
world reached $134 billion, while the
region’s non-oil exports failed to exceed
$60 billion, equal to the exports of
Finland, a country with a population of
5.5 million, compared to a total Arab
population of 275 million.

Around 54% of total Arab exports went
to the industrial countries, 29.1% to Asia,
and only 8.2% to Arab countries.

Similarly, of the total Arab imports of
$169 billion in 1998, 68% were from
industrial countries, 16% were from Asia,
while the share of Arab imports stood at a
low 7%. The limited size of intra-Arab
trade is particularly pronounced when
compared to other regional groupings.

For example, regional trade in the
Andean Pact countries (Colombia,
Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela) as a share
of total trade stood at 11.4% in 1998,
25.5% in the Southern Core countries
(Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, and
Uruguay), 22.2% for the East Asian
economies, and a high 51% and 57% for
NAFTA (Mexico, Canada and the USA) and
the EU (European Union) respectively.

Not only is the volume of intra-Arab
trade low, it has also recorded little
growth over the past two decades. The
share of intra-Arab trade in total trade
rose marginally from 5.2% in 1970 to
8.2% in 1998, while trade between the
Andean Pact countries increased from
1.7% of total trade in 1970 to exceed
11% in 1998. Similarly, regional trade in the
Southern Core countries rose from 11.4%
of total trade in 1970 to 25.5% in 1998, and
trade between NAFTA members rose
from 36% to 51% of total trade over the
same period. It is worth noting that over
half of Arab regional exports (56.6%) in
1998 were to GCC countries, which is
explained by their large markets (mainly
Saudi Arabia), and their relatively open
trade policies and higher per capita
income. Around 21.8% of regional
exports were to select Mashreq countries
(Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and
Sudan), and 16.7% to Maghreb countries.

Weak regional Arab trade can be partly
explained by the prevalence of generally
restrictive trade regimes in the Arab
world, with the exception of the GCC
countries which pursue relatively open
trade policies. The average tariff for the
Arab region exceeds that of all other
regions, except Africa. The average tariff
for Arab countries is estimated at around
17%, compared to 20% for African
countries, 13% for Western Hemisphere
countries, 12% for Asia Pacific, and 9%
for Europe. Bilateral trade in the region is
also often constrained by political factors.
For instance in 1989, prior to the Gulf War
and UN sanctions, Saudi exports to Iraq
exceeded $150 million, but are now
insignificant.

Non-tariff barriers, such as licensing,
bans, state trading monopolies and restrictive
foreign exchange allocation, are also
extensive in a number of Arab economies.
However, as an increasing number of
Arab countries join the WTO (World
Trade Organization) and the transition
period normally granted to developing
countries comes to an end, non-tariff barriers
will be abolished and tariffs on
imports will be capped at a specific level
to be reduced gradually in the years
ahead. Already Kuwait, UAE, Qatar,
Bahrain, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Jordan
and Algeria are WTO members. Saudi
Arabia and Oman may become members
in late 2000 or early 2001. Lebanon and
Sudan have applied to join the WTO.

While policy-related barriers to trade
could be addressed, other more fundamental
and not as easily reversible barriers
to intra-Arab trade exist, namely the lack
of product complementarity. Many Arab
countries enjoy similar natural resource
endowments (for example, oil, phosphate,
and agricultural products) and therefore the
countries’ comparative advantages lie
mainly in the same products, providing little
incentive to trade with each other. In
addition, the lack of a diversified export
base restricts the opportunities for trade
based on product differentiation.

Low intra-Arab trade strengthens the
case for further trade liberalization in the
Arab world. Greater regional integration, in
a way that is compatible with multilateral
liberalization, could contribute to growth
not only by increasing trade and allowing
regional producers to benefit from
economies of scale, but also by encouraging
foreign direct investment and the
deepening of capital markets. In 1998, 14
Arab countries established the Pan-Arab
Free Trade Agreement (PAFTA), under
which tariffs are reduced for participating
members by 10% annually, thus establishing
free trade from 2007. This is a step in the
right direction. But the world will be very
different by 2007, and this requires a more
aggressive move towards a free trade area
so that it becomes a reality sooner than the
target date.

May 10, 2000 0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Money Matters

Regional Markets

by Executive Contributor May 9, 2000
written by Executive Contributor

Morocco

The bourse in Casablanca shrugged off a series of
healthy corporate results and continued to linger in negative
territories. It is estimated that overall corporate
profits for listed companies surged 12% in 1999; however,
this failed to pull the Casablanca Stock Exchange
(CSE) out of its doldrums. Since the beginning of the
year, the market has shed almost 8% as institutional investors
remained on the sidelines, waiting for firm plans on the
partial sale of state-run firms such as Maroc Telecom and
Royal Air Maroc. Although the rise in average net profits
indicates future signs of recovery, only a resumption
of institutional buying can lift the market’s spirit.

EGYPT

Egyptian equities continued to lack momentum, remaining
on a downward trend accentuated in the last few weeks by
worries about the stability of the Egyptian pound. Trading
was mostly concentrated in a handful of traditional blue
chips capturing the bulk of activity. Egyptian Media Production
continued to maintain a negative correlation with
MobiNil as investors kept on shifting their positions between
the two stocks. However, investors reacted positively
to news that Egypt will be included in the Morgan Stanley
Capital International (MSCI) emerging market index in
November 2000. The inclusion is expected to reinforce the
bourse’s liquidity by attracting larger foreign inflows, especially
from US investors.

JORDAN

Fresh selling pressure and a dearth of positive market
news combined to drive the market index below the
150 psychological support level to reach its lowest
level since the end of 1996. Following the foreign
selling spree that has taken place over the past few
months, net non-Jordanian investment on the bourse
stood at a mere $3.7 million at the end of March,
compared to $18 million over the same period last
year. Market capitalization fell from $5.8 billion at the
beginning of the year to $5.4 billion at the end of
March, driven lower by losses in the industrial and
banking sectors.

May 9, 2000 0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
  • 1
  • …
  • 689
  • 690
  • 691
  • 692
  • 693
  • …
  • 696

Latest Cover

About us

Since its first edition emerged on the newsstands in 1999, Executive Magazine has been dedicated to providing its readers with the most up-to-date local and regional business news. Executive is a monthly business magazine that offers readers in-depth analyses on the Lebanese world of commerce, covering all the major sectors – from banking, finance, and insurance to technology, tourism, hospitality, media, and retail.

  • Donate
  • Our Purpose
  • Contact Us

Sign up for our newsletter

    • Facebook
    • Twitter
    • Instagram
    • Linkedin
    • Youtube
    Executive Magazine
    • ISSUES
      • Current Issue
      • Past issues
    • BUSINESS
    • ECONOMICS & POLICY
    • OPINION
    • SPECIAL REPORTS
    • EXECUTIVE TALKS
    • MOVEMENTS
      • Change the image
      • Cannes lions
      • Transparency & accountability
      • ECONOMIC ROADMAP
      • Say No to Corruption
      • The Lebanon media development initiative
      • LPSN Policy Asks
      • Advocating the preservation of deposits
    • JOIN US
      • Join our movement
      • Attend our events
      • Receive updates
      • Connect with us
    • DONATE